So another day and the stock market is barely moving. There are some days when there is some movement, but a 1% – yes 1% move in stocks and everyone involved goes wild with the excitement. And then back in no volatility mode, until the next “government-focused” headline. Virtually everything which moves markets now has something to do with government or central banking. Meaning the markets are basically socialists. Or the power/greed/control of governments have turned markets into their little socialist utopias. It’s disgusting what has happened. And what has allowed them to accomplish this feat? The 35 year bond bull market. That has ended. Governments believe they are omnipotent, they’re going to discover they aren’t. But for participants in the big markets, their performance now “requires” leverage. It’s very concerning. And the the market to watch closely is junk bonds. That’s helping to hold things together.
From a few weeks ago and also yesterday, MGTI and their new focus on bitcoin mining – article. The bitcoin angle will grab people, and the long term chart has selling climaxes/SOSes. But it has also had technical damage, and it’s a short-term trader for me (for now). And it’s back into resistance. I’m out and watching for the next setup. And keeping in mind the bitcoin chart itself, which has its own issues (for now).
COOL talked about several times as a solid chart, and is a good trader, with more good news today.
I’m watching the 5 stocks from the winners video posted 2 hours ago – reactions and volatility is the key. They had big moves, so right now, it’s just watching.
DRWI is still running on fumes, and into resistance. That could be a mini-pump and dump in the works.
The market is as phony as a 3 dollar bill or any other one of their denominations.
What would happen if there were the same shananagans at a live auction.
Hi Scott, I love your big picture commentary. I get how the bond bull has led them to believe in their omnipotence. What I don’t follow is how the junk bonds are holding things together. Any clarification would be most appreciated.
Hi Dave, first to look at the situation if junk yields spiked – then just the sentiment regarding the economy, and the snowball effect back on junk. Also the high yields would be a big problem for energy especially, retailers, commercial RE, telecom….And then the effects on all corporate debt, and derivatives, and credit quality concerns/widening spreads, default risk and coming back to the stock market. Gold would like it, the miners would not. We also have a huge wall of maturities over the next 5 years, really kicking in next year, but some of these companies will soon be starting to work on that this year. And throw in the Fed. With a likely resumption (albeit slow) of the bond bear. So you can see now why most of this stuff is not going to be pondered while junk is stable. You know in markets, nothing matters..until it does. But all of this pertains to my bearishness on frackers especially, energy shares, crude – and why are the shares lagging oil so badly. And why my focus has continued to be shorting the energy shares on rallies, willing to miss on some of the short term bottom opportunities.
Thanks Scott