In our premarket comments today we talked about DRYS, the shippers, and the Baltic Dry Index. I’ve discussed them several times recently, did a post (below) about that on 9/15. And today the shippers exploded.
I’m real pleased with my focus and preparation today. The video below is centered on DCIX, and discusses DRYS and TOPS. It covered my early trade in DCIX – 10.61-14.42, and later traded it again. I had a very active trading day – here are today’s fills, with 4 out of 5 winners and one big winner in DCIX. I ended up trading it twice – later a very quick trade 15.46-17.28. The other trades – ISIG loser 2-1.80, DRYS 2 winners 4.21-4.68 and 4.49-4.65 and long NUGT 28.23. And as discussed in the video, the “big red bar” did show up in DCIX, but it was still bounce-worthy to me, so I did trade it again. And TOPS literally doubled after I finished the video.
From 9/15: “This discussion will be expanded upon in time. The Baltic Dry Index is shown below. Overall the index itself is in a big accumulation-type area. The bearish websites always attribute plunges in the index to economic catastrophes. It does reflect economics somewhat, but it is not actually a measure of how much trade per se. It’s purely a measure of the global shipping rates. Meaning it has its own supply/demand/price – rates. Chinese shipbuilding caused a huge increase in supply, some of that has been worked off. So to wrap this up for now, the commodity permabears love to point to this as proof of deflation forever. I totally disagree. They also argue that the Fed rate increases will destroy the economy and the demand for commodities (to be shipped). Then how do they explain the 1970s. Amazing how “economists” forget there is demand and supply. In January 2016, I believed inflation and commodities would bottom by March, even as short-term, not long-term yet, rates would continue increasing, That belief was mainly about accumulation, of course, the time frame, and supply destruction, as the markets were “looking ahead”. And looking forward, the big reactions in the sectors are for buying. And shipping rates, thanks to China, Asia, and commodity pricing will do better. Not at all talking daytrading here, tho there are always those opportunities, but shippers are interesting. Just like we started warning about retailers in May – “start watching for the bottoms showing up” – and accumulation showing up there, and also small energy stocks, then the majors. Now the shippers are interesting to me. I have no positions currently. The big reactions are the opportunities. More on energy stocks later, but once again, for me the reactions are for buying.”
Why are we so interested in the shippers, and talk about the “long-term bottom”. From 9/15: “This discussion will be expanded upon in time. The Baltic Dry Index is shown below. Overall the index itself is in a big accumulation-type area. The bearish websites always attribute plunges in the index to economic catastrophes. It does reflect economics somewhat, but it is not actually a measure of how much trade per se. It’s purely a measure of the global shipping rates. Meaning it has its own supply/demand/price – rates. Chinese shipbuilding caused a huge increase in supply, some of that has been worked off. So to wrap this up for now, the commodity permabears love to point to this as proof of deflation forever. I totally disagree. They also argue that the Fed rate increases will destroy the economy and the demand for commodities (to be shipped). Then how do they explain the 1970s. Amazing how “economists” forget there is demand and supply. In January 2016, I believed inflation and commodities would bottom by March, even as short-term, not long-term yet, rates would continue increasing, That belief was mainly about accumulation, of course, the time frame, and supply destruction, as the markets were “looking ahead”. And looking forward, the big reactions in the sectors are for buying. And shipping rates, thanks to China, Asia, and commodity pricing will do better. Not at all talking daytrading here, tho there are always those opportunities, but shippers are interesting – DRYS. Just like we started warning about retailers in May – “start watching for the bottoms showing up” – and accumulation showing up there, and also small energy stocks, then the majors. Now the shippers are interesting to me. The big reactions are the opportunities.”
From 10/26: “Back in July/August we started discussing the “change in character in DRYS“, “something it hasn’t done in a long time”. That was explained months ago, and discussed several times since. we discussed DRYS, the shipping leader, again in the Baltic Dry Index premarket six weeks ago, and a few times about the long-term bottom in the shippers. It’s doubled since the Baltic Dry Index post. and yesterday DRYS had a monster move into the highs. I didn’t catch nearly enough of the move, and sold too early yesterday, but again “change of character“.”
Thats bazaar, wasn’t it up 500% in pre market on the 1-7 spilt? Looked like the charts weren’t adjusted.Totally missed out on that and also going short on Pandora.
Yes there were some messed up charts, also did that in the Sept split and I believe TOPS charts were weird. The thing to watch now, and it’s what I started talking about with DRYS in July, can DCIX and TOPS hold these areas. DRYS did. DCIX took out it’s previous spike, for now. BTW that spike was also a delayed rocket ship after the last split. In July DCIX couldn’t hold after going to a higher high, nor could TOPS in Sept. The whole group spiked today, SHIP, GLBS.
And P, not sure if you could have found shares, but yes what a short. At this point, if you’re thinking it’s fundamentally cheap, then let it set up for you.
There were lots of shares of P available Thursday, suspected the big boys would hammer it. Seems like that’s the MO on weak earnings now? Wasn’t paying close enough attention, with other work.
Sure GE will dump more of his new shares before the SEC closes in on him.