One of the perks of being a subscriber of The Entry Points premium content is that Trader Scott sends our members comments every morning about market directions, movements and stocks we are watching for set ups. We release these comments in an edited form afterwards from time to time to allow our visitors a little peak into our premarket information.
11/6: For all of the people who think fancy systems, and complex (rear-view mirror tested” methods, and ultra-fast computers, and 10 monitors, and brilliant Gurus are the path to great things in this business, I couldn’t disagree more. But those are the things which most people chase after. I have complete belief that I can do very well in markets with a ten year old computer and one dinky CRT monitor – complete faith. To restate, this business is completely about hard work, consistency, mental toughness, a winning attitude, and 100% belief in one’s work. Is that work going to be right all the time, no, not even close. And that’s where the rest of it comes in. Just being prepared every single day blows away all of the fanciness. And how does all of this fit into the big markets.
The Yen (USDJPY) finally upthrusted that big resistance area I kept talking about, along with the rest of the “analysis” – “that big resistance area in the USDJPY” and how it is “not helping gold” and we are ” likely to have an upthrust thru that big resistance”. That resistance area constantly referred to was laid out – way back in September::
“For years I’ve believed the stock market is headed way higher, as is gold. The selloffs are for buying. As for gold intermediate-term, still believe there is a low coming up in about/less than 2 weeks. The shorter-term view is the same as from recent comments with the SC in the miners. And we talked about the Yen (pair) volatility, with the possibility with a push back to recent support, and then another push to higher highs within a bigger top in the USDJPY. A top will help gold.”
11/7: The stock market permabear websites have been, and will continue to be, wrong about stocks for nine years running. Every permabull gold website is all in on the stock market crash theory, such a shame people believe this crap. If only they would have taken the time to understand accumulation. And these sites have constantly come up with a newfangled theory why the stock market is a bubble ( just remember hearing this here, it will be the claims about gold also down the road). It isn’t a bubble, not even close, and even if I believe their incompetent claims, so what. Bubbles can, and always do, go on for years. Bubble or not, RISK CONTROL is 100% of the time the most important part of this. That approach, over time, works in all markets. Don’t go all in, more speculative situations cut way back on position sizing, know which setups are much shorter-term time-frame focused as opposed to position trading, buy into reactions, buy into potential spring situations, be aware of secondary rally failures, understand distribution, etc.
With all of this, back in May we started talking about the “long-term bottom, accumulation-focus” in retailers and small energy producers. That has worked out very well. While folks were focused on non-issues like OPEC (except a contrary view), or with retailers freaking out about Amazon, these groups had been hit hard and were givings off signs. And crude is at multi-year highs – remember accumulation?
And in July we talked about the “change of character in DRYS“, and in September the “huge accumulation in the Baltic Dry Index” and the “long-term bottom in the shippers“. What were the permabear websites focused on (and still are) at the exact same time we were saying these words? Do you see my point about focus?
The shippers, yesterday’s video, will continue to be on our watch list today, and the bigger reactions, and there certainly will be, are for….accumulation.
11/8: I was hoping to hear that one of you, for those who don’t watch the small stocks and mainly do big markets, did the TLT trade, which was clearly laid out a few weeks ago (like was the opportunity with the “likely upthrust in the Yen pair“), with the “break below 122.50”. The TLT was a premarket spring, the Yen was an upthrust, and I talked about the setups well in advance, and covered an excellent put trade into “below 122.50” on TLT. The big markets these days are not my focus, with only the very best setups worth my time.
As far as currencies, I’m not trading the Euro, but pondering this support area and building a rally setup in here. No setups today like MYO yesterday – two solid SOSes, but watching ONCS with drug trial news, and an interesting structure. Most stocks moving today have very ugly charts – DGLY, DRIO, MBI, IZEA with a big resistance area to deal with.
11/9: We’re closing in on the next intermediate rally in gold.
Stocks – if you were following OSTK it had another excellent buy area, and is up on “lousy” earnings. I’m still long and believe it’s had huge accumulation. Also long HALO. Watching CMLS, ROKU, KBSF all daytraders.
11/10: The huge accumulation area in oil, discussed numerous times, has yielded the breakout, with another resistance area to deal with. Gold is also in the huge accumulation area, and is currently trying to eat thru the 1285 supply area. But again, trying to stay on the right side of the market and giving yourself a fighting chance – recognizing accumulation, recognizing the downside of the accumulation and the upside of the accumulation, knowing when and what it means (approach) when a market/stock is in accum. combined with the new uptrend, knowing where the true breakout point is. All of these videos are on this site. We have given you numerous great opportunities and all of the tools to be very successful in markets. Just being on the right side is a hugely powerful tool in itself.
As to accum., 2 stocks which we’ve talked about more than any other are DVAX and IMMU. And discussed both recently and in the intraday videos, because of the opportunities as they had backups in their uptrends. I’m long both, DVAX for months, and today they both have excellent news. I’m considering lightening up a bit – accum is a powerful tool. Also have been discussing another holding, OSTK, again accum. Not long but EKSO another one, with numerous springs and up 50% at one point this AM from recent lows – accum, on all time frames. The smaller ones need to take profits. The shippers had the reaction and I’m long DRYS into the spring, these things will continue to be great traders – TOPS, RLOG, DCIX, ESEA, SALT. They are forming a major bottom – Baltic Index.
There are the groups which we like more than any – pot stocks, green tech, shippers, retailers, metals, energy – into the big reactions. And select biotech plus blockchain. Chip stocks are benefiting greatly from crypto mining.
Trading-wise, long ONCS, watching MYO, TRXC, OMER, LN very strong. (ROKU discussed in premarket comments yesterday.)
11/13: Bonds are rallying and you can see the resistance areas I’m looking at for the next opportunity to buy puts….would be the ones at this point. We’ll see. Bonds are in the the biggest distribution area I’ve ever seen, and the only “bubble”. Bitcoin to me, pure trading-wise, is like the internet build up in the late 90s. The individual cryptos are like the individual stocks, but it’s the technology itself which will survive and change the world. Did you go over that crypto chart from last week, lots of great info in there. There’ll be more later, but what a great market with the volatility, and the emotion and hype. Enjoy it and learn, it’s the late 90’s all over again.
Here is the support area I’m watching in the SPY, for the “….failure” info. Tops, potential, are a process, not an event.
On Friday I talked about gold trying to “eat thru the supply at 1285”. Two ways to do that, trade sideways (absorption) or “back up from the creek”, talked about this several times, like here. Gold is in a bull market/accum, the backups strengthen in accum and bull markets. There are a ton of reasons given for gold’s lackluster performance, I don’t care about any of that noise. Bitcoin is the latest one. Amazing how the markets create their own reasons. The backups are for buying, just understand the setup and the time-frame.
We talk about the “big curve in accum” – we discussed CNIT back in August –
“CNIT – the long term chart showing the stock having a full round trip with the rocket ship after the IPO, but the stock is now a survivor. It’s now been around for 10 years, but has traded back to its original IPO price once again. The IPO price is usually a support area when stocks do a round trip. Been watching this for awhile an old chart here -the accumulation area – the last time the stock traded at these levels (support), resulted in an explosive move and some huge buying climaxes. The stock has a lot of technical damage long term. We do need to get a feel for the bigger picture, as it can increase the probabilities of a reaction buy even in the short turn, And knowing these price levels can also offer the opportunity to recognize all different types of trade setups, For instance, the stock is now at multi-month highs, appears to be under accumulation.”
Again, just hard work, doing the research, like with EKSO talked about numerous times, and the beautiful area it was in with all of the SOSes. We follow a multitude of stocks, it’s a huge benefit for you to keep watching them also. There is nothing like the work you can do yourselves. I talked about some of my longs/ideas in the spring video, today watching several – NVFY, ACBFF incredibly strong, but give it room, same with NKTR, thank you David, plus OREX, TRXC needs some room.
11/14: A couple of times back in August, the 30th and 31st, we discussed the situation with a spring forming in the $ – The US$ has the potential to put in a longer-term spring, but I would still expect more retesting of lows no matter what the situation. And in October – A couple weeks ago, I discussed that if we are going to have another big push lower and retest of the lows in the $, we would need to push thru, likely upthrust, 94.30 first. And with the Euro last week – As far as currencies, I’m not trading the Euro, but pondering this support area and building a rally setup in here.
So today there is a big rally going on in the Euro, the $ is selling off, the Yen pair is lower (Yen up), bonds are up, stocks are down. According to the folks who believe in what makes gold rally, everything looks good, yet gold is also lower. To me, out of everything listed only the Yen has significance. All the other stuff is noise, but down the road the only thing I expect gold to correlate strongly with is a positive one with the stock market. I have done several posts about how often gold and the stock market move hand-in-hand, but way too many people will never accept facts. Too bad. In the meantime, yesterday we discussed how gold needs to “back up from the edge of the creek”. It is trying to build the force to get thru 1285….
Not a lot of stocks of interest. Yesterday was an OK day for me with a good multi-day exit in ONCS , the buy talked about in last week’s video and yesterday’s spring video. And there was an opportunity to buy it below where I did. And I took a small loss in NVFY. This morning I’m already down taking a loss in EKSO from yesterday, but the potential for a bounce is in there. My belief was a rally back towards the high. The volume yesterday was huge. We’ve talked about INSM numerous times, I’m long and will continue to look to….with the….going on. Watching IGT, AVEO.
11/15: All year, while all the chatter about currencies and commodities has been just noise to me (and a sentiment tool), I’ve been talking about a few things – the big range in the Yen pair and I’ve had the 112.95 support area drawn in for weeks, as a “magnet point”. The situation now tho is a likely shorter-term bounce back into the smaller range. But the move down so far has helped gold. And big-picture, we’ve relentlessly discussed the “uptrend part of the accum”, the “curve” and the “accum combined with the uptrend”. Where else is this discussed on the internet. There is only one thing that I care about in markets – my work, everything else, to me, is noise. When I make mistakes I lose money, and they are 100% my mistakes and my losses.
Gold is continuing to eat thru supply, it’s struggling, but the struggle is what will allow a powerful move out of here. The tougher time a market has to get thru resistance areas, the “easier” is the ensuing move. A bounce in the Yen pair won’t help.
Again, the..is what I’m watching with stocks. The Transports have made zero progress in 3 full years…are concerning. The energy shares, which are..continue to badly lag crude itself, which has upthrust potential.
For months we’ve talked about the accum areas in CNIT and BITA, we like them bigger-picture.
I flat out missed the quick spike to sell my DRYS reaction buy into yesterday, I’ll look again today. The shippers are churning in….They need plenty of time.
MOSY is back toward the high, I’m out of my long in it, but it reminds me somewhat of EKSO. We’ve liked SORL for a long time, in a….
Buying strong stocks into the reactions is a very high probability trade. We’re watching IGT, HIMX, NKTR, MZOR. DVAX also with a rally first and then another push lower. OSTK, still long, has had a big run for now.
11/16: So then this is the uselessness that comes out of not understanding markets. No offense to the guy, but as he was sitting around over-analyzing ROKU, I did recommend it several times, and also traded it a few times.
But this guy. I had the “pleasure” of meeting him. Hussman is adored, revered, quoted everywhere, and he’s always wrong – and he’s loaded. He’s a real thinker .What a disgrace. The whole time he’s been scaring people out of the stock market, I’ve been wildly bullish about the big-picture prospects. Why? The massive accumulation, and the March 2009 terminal shakeout. Over the years, the gold permabears will look just as foolish. In the meantime, gold is doing a good job of resetting sentiment.
Yesterday I gave you the spring trade setup in the USDJPY. Nice little trade. Of course it also helped to weigh down gold again. So once more, gold is getting itself ready.
And in the meantime with the SPY, another spring opportunity. I’m trying to convince you guys – just trade springs, forget everything else, it’s all noise.
11/17: Markets are about liquidity, there are trillions sitting in bonds around the world. And there will be nothing more bullish for stocks, PMs, and commodities – nothing. Bigger-picture, all backups in these markets are for buying for me. Everything else is noise.
No one in leadership is paying any attention to any of this. Very, very concerning. I see a much different world on the horizon.
The shippers are surging in premarket, Stevie took some profits in TOPS. I’m long DRYS, and it’s hardly budging. And to repeat, the shippers are one of the most bullish groups out there (Baltic Dry Index). I’m in accumulation mode, but it won’t be easy. I said the same thing about green tech last year, and there have been numerous opportunities. So….
Another group we’ have liked (since May) is the beaten down retailers. No AMZN will not be taking over the world. The same thing was said about WMT 20 years ago. There is another “AMZN” out there. Cryptos will have a profound effect on retailing in several ways. It’s one reason I’m so bullish on OSTK (long). FL….all with good earnings.
Leave a Reply