9/1: The stock market, SPY, is continuing its rally off the short-term accumulation/spring of the gap support. Now it’s getting back into resistance. For people who believe the stock market is a bubble (it’s not) they haven’t seen anything yet. Amazing how so many who are focused on the “stock market bubble”, but they are bullish on bonds. Even when I was buying bonds last December, my belief was, and I said it at the time, it’s just an automatic rally in a brand new bear market. I have no position anymore, but I am looking to get short, and continue to believe the bond market is in redistribution. This is very bullish for both gold and the stock market going forward – yes they will be tied together as the years go by.
Gold and the Yen saw a lot of volatility after the number this morning, and it’s likely we have a bigger trading range setting up, and a good (higher) low time frame coming up soon. More later, Gold is in a bull market and has been since 12/17/15. There are a bunch of clowns all over the internet who are now just figuring that out.
9/5: It’s a “newsy” market right now and there can be some sharp moves and reversals. It’s certainly not the type of market to buy “breakouts”. The stock market is down premarket, but there should be a bounce in there today. The problem is probability-wise this technical situation is nothing like the one which was discussed ahead of time in the 8/28 premarket about “buying the break below support”. That was an awesome setup which was just sitting there – this isn’t. This week should see another high, so we could see a selloff and another rally. But I trade specific setups, not scenarios.
Several times we’ve talked about the election night high in gold as the first target. We hit up against that, and viewing the 1 minute chart, there have been a couple very nice very short-term opportunities on both sides of the market for a leveraged trader. Again, many ways to do this business. To repeat for the 100th time, it’s a bull market and the backups are for buying. I’m still long GDX calls, but sold some more of a short-term NUGT long position on Friday. A few weeks ago we were warning about not extrapolating like everyone else about the miners and silver lagging gold saying “this will change”. I’ll get more specific, but for now there should be another low time-frame-wise this month, and then the potential for the most powerful move in quite a while. Short-term trying to set up the support area. There will be quick sharp selloffs. The Yen pair heading back into support, right now trading within several ranges – and look at the two charts and notice something else about the Yen vs gold.
9/7: From yesterday before-hand and another opportunity to trade a bounce in the SPY, etc. using calls or ETFs – “The stock market is down premarket, but there should be a bounce in there today.” And another rally.” We lay out opportunities each morning. Like with gold yesterday in premarket – “Gold same view – there are a lot of doubters. The selloffs will be sharp, quick, shallow. It’s a bull market. I’m certainly not buying now, but still long GDX calls.” And as you see, yesterday we definitely had the “sharp, quick, shallow selloff” followed today by a $15 rally. That low yesterday was “clear” ending action, and if you believe in this thing, then it did become a buying opportunity – another one. I bought JNUG and NUGT when GDX traded back into the gap support. I’ll be taking some profits this morning. One reason is I don’t really like the upthrust in gold today.
9/11: From Friday’s premarket – “Sentiment is a wonderful tool, and it was quite amazing back in early July, right when I was buying gold into the bottom of the range, to hear even a GATA member almost giving up on gold.” And this – “Sentiment-wise the non-believers are, of course, becoming believers – not a plus.” So now after the big sustained rally in PMs, here is some brilliance from the ones who are always buying after a huge rally, or giving excuses why gold is falling, right into the big lows – “Steve St. Angelo Reveals the Start of “CRAZY MOVES in Gold & Silver” or “GOLDEN CROSS!!! – Precious Metals BULL MARKET CONFIRMED!!!” I have zero interest in anybody else’s view of any markets except for using it to judge sentiment., and you can see how the sentiment has really shifted. It took them a while, but their emotional approach to markets is back again. So for me, the approach for the last few days has been short-term trading of miners, with a longer-term call position in GDX. As markets get more compressed (range trading) my own trading follows suit, and then trading on both sides of the market. I have no position except for the calls and protecting profits is the focus. So for now in gold, that ‘trendy” market did start in September, but has a lot of stragglers aboard, like the big hedge fund positioning, and selling will shake some people off. While this will also begin to set up the next rally with some different points of EA. Gold is in a bull market, but it’s probably going to need to deal with a US$ rally (actually weaker Yen). Look at the video from last week about the potential for a spring in the Yen, and gold “needs to detach itself from the Yen”.
So from premarket comments 8/31 – “Yesterday we talked about the USD potential for a spring low, and it’s continued its push higher today. Of course the brilliant commentary, and the theory, is how it’s the $ strength hurting gold. That underlying theory will get some people to sell gold, as the theory will be around a long time, but it’s the Yen weakness vs the $ which is the real problem. It’s time for gold to separate itself from the Yen, which is coming along later this year”. Even with a rally back to around 94.30 there will likely be more retesting of lows.
Also talked about Friday, if there were no “downside follow-thru in the stock market“, and I covered short positions and stepped aside as far as the indexes. With the QQQ, and the big trading range, I’ll be looking to do very short-term trading getting long on a reaction today. It’s very compressed. Bonds are in distribution, I’m positioning for it.
9/12: There are a couple new videos, here and here, discussing what Stevie and I are doing with these premarket comments. One video is about bounce trades – they need to be specific short-term trade setups, but bounces can be part of a bigger picture setup. This gets back to the time frame issue, which is one of the toughest stumbling blocks to deal with in markets. There are several video discussions about this in the archive, along with the bounce vs. the rally topic. Please understand this about what the bounce is, because it is not a rally. So the time frame is a big issue, and there are ways to deal with that. let me know about this stuff.
How many times have I laid this out about how the stock market is in a huge uptrend, yet all over the internet the “crash-talkers” are constantly espousing their crap theories. The very big picture is a bull market. Why? The huge accumulation from 2001-2011, discussed numerous times in videos and in posts. But on a shorter-term trading basis, there are opportunities on both sides – getting long/covering shorts, getting shorts/selling longs. Yesterday in the premarket the comment was – “With the QQQ, and the big trading range, I’ll be looking to do very short-term trading getting long on a reaction today. It’s very compressed. Bonds are in distribution, I’m positioning for that. More later.” As this is what I myself am looking to do, the intraday setup did show up to “get long on a reaction”. As you know, my preference is for TQQQ to get long the QQQ, and the little reaction setup is shown at the arrow – 104.09 was the fill. And it will be sold today into the rally – “short-term trading”. I also bought some QQQ calls, they are much more liquid than TQQQ, but the calls were sold way too early yesterday. The SPY is at another all-time high, but once again we are getting back into resistance, also in the Dow and the QQQ – so will be watching for the potential for EA, a pickup in downside volume, and a rally to sell short into. So step aside in the indexes, but still long stock positions.
The rally in the USDJPY is continuing, as is the overall $ rally, hurting gold. Yesterday talked about below 1325 first, and then a short-term potential there. Intermediate-term still thinking a selloff back into the old trading range will freak out a lot of people, and set something up – no hurry for gold right now.
Bonds are in distribution, and I’m holding some December puts.
9/13: People all over the internet and TV are continuing to call THE top in the stock market, which they have been doing for 8 years – even back in 2009 coming off the huge accumulation area from 2001. That accumulation area ended in 2011, but this is 95% of the reason why I have been so bullish (long-term) on the stock market, and viewing each bigger trading range as trading potential, on both sides, with the “hope” that it would break to the downside to set up an outstanding buying opportunity. I continue to be amazed at the tiny % of “investors” who have zero idea what accumulation is. Again, please learn accumulation, which along with understanding the trend (yes the trading range also), and support and resistance, plus sentiment, is a fantastic trading “system”. I’ve been saying the same thing about gold for 3+ years – the huge accumulation area – and 5 years from now I’ll still be mocking the gold permabears in the same manner. As to the useless theories about gold, yesterday the $ was up, the Yen (USDJPY up) was down, the stock market was up, bonds were down, and….gold was up. Gold is continuing to try to unshackle from the last real anchor – the Yen, and bonds to a certain degree. As for gold on Monday I discussed using “below 1325 as a buy zone short-term”. These areas are all going to be part of a bigger picture bottom also,
So the stock indexes to me are still about trading, as stated yesterday, I sold TQQQ into the rally, and stepped aside for now. The QQQ is back into resistance, as is the Dow, and IWM. Is the stock market overvalued? I don’t care, because I don’t know what that means, nor does anyone else, as they’ve proven for 8+ years. “Overvalued” can get way, way, way overvalued. Same thing with undervalued – that’s my point about my “system”. We really like things which have been creamed, but it takes way more than that to begin to step in. We did that with fuel cell stocks PLUG and BLDP, both talked about on March 18th.
9/15: This discussion will be expanded upon in time. The Baltic Dry Index is shown below. Overall the index itself is in a big accumulation-type area. The bearish websites always attribute plunges in the index to economic catastrophes. It does reflect economics somewhat, but it is not actually a measure of how much trade per se. It’s purely a measure of the global shipping rates. Meaning it has its own supply/demand/price – rates. Chinese shipbuilding caused a huge increase in supply, some of that has been worked off. So to wrap this up for now, the commodity permabears love to point to this as proof of deflation forever. I totally disagree. They also argue that the Fed rate increases will destroy the economy and the demand for commodities (to be shipped). Then how do they explain the 1970s. Amazing how “economists” forget there is demand and supply. In January 2016, I believed inflation and commodities would bottom by March, even as short-term, not long-term yet, rates would continue increasing, That belief was mainly about accumulation, of course, the time frame, and supply destruction, as the markets were “looking ahead”. And looking forward, the big reactions in the sectors are for buying. And shipping rates, thanks to China, Asia, and commodity pricing will do better. Not at all talking daytrading here, tho there are always those opportunities, but shippers are interesting. Just like we started warning about retailers in May – “start watching for the bottoms showing up” – and accumulation showing up there, and also small energy stocks, then the majors. Now the shippers are interesting to me. I have no positions currently. The big reactions are the opportunities. More on energy stocks later, but once again, for me the reactions are for buying.
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