The following post is from 6 weeks ago. Today bond yields are at the lowest level since 11/10/2016. Remember all of the hot air right after the election about inflation, reflation, soaring inflation, hyper-inflation. Remember? Is this the time to buy bonds. Absolutely not. But when I bought bonds (TLT) on 12/1/16 and wrote about it here, the whole world was yelling about a bond market collapse. It was truly amazing to witness. The bearishness on bonds then was almost as intense as when I believed it was finally time to step up to the plate and buy gold, and especially miners – in this post from 12/9/2015. I make plenty of mistakes in markets, and when the market “informs” me of my poor decision, then it’s a matter of finding the exit door. But if we’re confident about a situation, we need to stay persistent about it. Whether it’s hearing the constant doubters about a (big picture) gold bull market, or whatever. Do the work, and stay tough. Shown below is the post from 6 weeks ago:
The following video is from 2/13/17. It was about accumulation in real time, not rear view mirror. It’s a good video to show in light of the consistent doubt for why I’m bullish on bonds. Markets are dynamic, not static. And static thinking is not remotely helpful in markets. I have only three allegiances in markets – a total respect for the trend, for accumulation/distribution and for support/resistance. It doesn’t matter what my outlook or view is, the market could care less what I’ve conjured up. A big ego is toxic in markets, the market is way, way bigger (and smarter) than we are – a fancy method doesn’t change what the market is doing. People develop these wildly, wildly, wildly overpriced methods and “services”, by backtesting them in the rear view mirror. And there is zero focus on the trading skills of the people involved – but it’s the approach to markets which is everything, and a method is only a part of the total approach. A fancy method gets us nowhere on its’ own. Markets are dynamic, not static, therefore don’t we need a method (approach) which works in all types of technical environments? – something which is adaptable. These method peddlers try to force their rear view mirror method into/onto the market, instead of letting the market dictate what approach to use. I’m very bearish on bonds long term, but something changed in late November into December. Markets are dynamic, not static. Did I say that yet? I wrote about bonds several times in the blog late last year, along with my initial purchase and partial profit taking. This chart is from about 10 days ago. Here is today’s – right back into resistance – so take some profits, or at a bare minimum, DO NOT BUY. Maybe everybody who’s bearish on bonds is correct. The market will tell us. How in the world did it become contrarian to be bullish on bonds?
Would you say “Markets are dynamic, not static. And static thinking is not remotely helpful in markets” for markets that tends to be influenced by season to season basis?(like agriculture etc)
It was about the mental aspect of markets overall Raphael. Not necessarily about time frames or seasons, tho both of those are important in other ways. So this post is about the thought process where you are so focused on the outcome, and you can’t even imagine there can be any opportunities to do something else. We need to have flexible minds as traders, and our only bias should be to have an open mind to great setups.