9: 20 AM: Quiet morning, but Euro good rally/$ down, yet gold not moving, and bonds down. Every day we’re watching this scenario set up for what it means regarding when volatility explodes, and what’s in sync. So $, gold, bonds lining up. And how about US equities, and yen. And the NAK stock has become interesting with the selling climax and retesting. This thing has had a lot of technical damage, and is either a good trader, or you SLOWLY accumulate – layer in. It will take time.
10 AM: There are commentaries out there about the miners lagging gold, or when silver is lagging, and it means this or that, and that’s fine. But it’s confusing to us. We try to make this business as simple as possible. The PMs to us are about gold. As long as gold is OK, and is not getting too emotional on the upside (upthrust), the other stuff will work it’s way out. But micromanaging when the miners are lagging, or leading – that relationship changes sometimes day by day or even intraday. If someone can use that and it actually helps their net profitability, then fine. But it seems to us, it’s just guessing by most people, and we have to make real decisions and trade, how does guessing help?
10 AM: Just to add, if something is in an uptrend, how is it bad to have a reaction? Why do people freak out about that? The selling ALWAYS strengthens a market when it’s in an UPTREND. And that’s the key – how many people even take the overall TREND of the market into consideration. They’re just winging it. Not that we don’t blow it sometimes, but at least there’s an approach there. Our whole approach is about the accumulation/distribution and the TREND, and using the breaks of support in UPTRENDS as opportunities, not to freak out. But once again, you have to judge the trend correctly (not at all easy), and you have to respect the trend (not at all easy).
2/28/17
9 AM: This runs contrary to the goldbug mantra, but I have repeated this for years, some old posts were about this. PMs and the stock market will move higher together over the coming years. I’m extremely bullish long term on stocks, it just continues to be a lousy entry point for an INVESTMENT in US stocks. The big selloffs are for accumulation in PMs, stocks, and commodities. People ignoring the stock market outright will likely miss some great opportunities. The multi-decade bear market in bonds (upcoming), and the major top in not only the $ (upcoming, but definitely not here yet), but all fiat money, is extremely bullish for all 3 asset classes.
9:40 AM: BTW, as most of you know by now, my “price targets” always means below that price, before I’d even consider purchasing. They need to break these areas, it’s about risk control.
10:30 AM: Just took some profits at 119.80 in GLD, I’ll do a video soon, and also talk GDX.
12:49 PM: Sold the rest of GLD 119.79, gold itself is churning, short term in and out.
3:10 PM: Today gold is doing what it needs to do to dump some of the late comers. Good to see, it is only getting stronger by doing this. It would be good to see silver do the same.
3/1
9 AM: There are 4 charts attached: The people short the $ are freaking this morning, as the $ is now at 6 week highs. So the people short the $ have to deal with covering or not at this point. I’ve made my views about the $ known, but even so I don’t do “breakouts”, and you can see the resistance areas. The Euro is a total piece of crap, but even so, markets take a winding path to their destination, not a straight line. The straight line mentality, aka, the outcome-based approach is toxic. It’s in the entry points, aka, the better/best opportunities, where some pretty good performance stems from. And 2 more charts, the Yen performance vs. gold in these 2 charts, if you can somehow view side by side. I’ll let you do that – the Yen, and gold this AM. Gold is strengthening it’s uptrend with this reaction. It would be great to see silver do the same, but silver doesn’t care one bit what I think. The Yen has support drawn in.
9:30 AM: When miners were at their highs, people were concerned about missing the move, now they are reacting. Do you have a list of miners to buy? You should. So if the selling gets intense enough, I have some “favorites” – and step into the selling to layer in at some point.
10:10 AM: Buying MUX – layer in.
11:30 AM: I talk all the time about selling too early, and I told some people who contacted me directly about taking profits in the miners in early February. Markets rarely go in a straight line, and if they do and I have a position, even if it’s been cut back, then fine. The miners continued higher after I sold, but now look at them, and able to layer in lower. This business to me is only about risk, take care of that, and the profits take care of themselves. So here’s another example of me selling too early (or not ?) With FSLR – I left this message 2/23 at 12:20 – sold too early? This business is not about fantasizing about profits, it’s about hard work and DOING, not sitting around analyzing everything:
These solar stocks I’ve been harping about with the selling climaxes last year, and all of the SOSes coming in, and use the weakness to buy. I listed several symbols. Well just like the ag stocks got overdone on the upside a few weeks ago, and I trimmed back, now it’s the solar stocks. I’m very bullish long term, but it’s time to cut back into this buying panic. Someone else can take my shares from here. And I have a limit to sell all my shares in FSLR at 37.75.
3/2
9:25 AM: The $ is at 8 week highs and it’s not helping gold. I cleared out of the other 1/4 position in NUGT pre-market at 9.18.
9:30 AM: Here is the $ chart. And the crappy Euro, here is the chart. Closing in on support. Markets take a winding road, they rarely go in a straight line. Usually we get so focused on a chart as being static. We should always try to remember that markets are dynamic, not static, so why view markets in a static manner.
11:46 AM: Silver is finally starting to see some selling. How big the reaction will be, no idea. But it is nowhere even close to where I would buy it. My last investment buy in silver (archived) was 12/20 at 15.70. Silver was freaking everyone out then, including me. When I start freaking out again, maybe it’ll be a good time to buy. Silver really needs a reaction to reset it, but it could care less what I think. All I have control over is where to get in, and where to get out. Predicting and guessing gets me nowhere.
2:00 PM: There have been too many “bullish” stories around recently about silver, it just needs a good selling wave to reset it. It isn’t remotely close to where I would buy it. So for all of the people exactly 4 weeks ago who were concerned about missing the move…well. Once again, all of the talk and focus about some method this or method that. Trading skills are 10x more important than a method. What kind of method do we need to learn to have patience. It costs ZERO to learn patience. How will a method teach us patience. And who cares if we have the most beautiful method, if we have no trading skills. Patience is a trading skill, and you don’t need to pay anyone to learn it – nothing. Although, it does cost – a lot actually. Because we only learn it thru our mistakes.
2:15 PM: The $ still has a lot of work to do in this re-accumulation area – many twists and turns still. This 3 month reaction in the $ hasn’t changed my view. But the people who just get bullish or bearish on something just because of the price action, but take no account of the overall trend – sorry doesn’t work.
3:05 PM: It’s about changing our mentality to averaging in, not averaging down. Averaging down, we’re just winging it. Averaging in is more professional, and understanding a big/major bottom is a process, so shouldn’t our own buying also be a process. Most people devolve into “picking a bottom”. So layering in, and if your timing is really good, you actually won’t buy a full line, but that’s OK. And GDX got back into support today, a logical spot to begin.
3/3
8:30 AM: My comment from yesterday AM – markets take a winding road. Whether I’m bullish, or bearish, support and resistance are to be respected, at least by me – yesterday Euro was at support:
“Here is the $ chart. And the crappy Euro, here is the chart. Closing in on support. Markets take a winding road, they rarely go in a straight line. Usually we get so focused on a chart as being static. We should always try to remember that markets are dynamic, not static, so why view markets in a static manner.”
So today, here are the charts – US$ – Euro.Markets are doing all kinds of things/processes dependent on different time frames. This thing in the $ is a process. It’s why I put up these comments in the AM – there can be all kinds of setups, and biases don’t help whatsoever. If the setup is there, who cares what I think overall about a market. A setup is a setup.
2:30 PM: OK, been busy today. So I have 2 live (a bit late) videos today for JNUG long. etc. I have kept repeating GDX below 21.80 with ENDING ACTION was the first spot for a higher probability low for the miners. We saw that today. Is that THE low. I have no idea, but it was a good spot to trade from certainly. Once again, just buying weakness in itself is a very nice approach. I took 1/2 profits in JNUG wayyyyyyyyy too early, like usual, at 6.54. And yes that was a sign of strength in the miners today – it’s all on the videos. I’ll post these videos over here also today. I also shorted TBT at 40.64 today – also on the 1st video.
March 7
9:28 AM: The seasonals in PMs don’t always “work”. In the major bottom in 1998-2002 – the track record is – 1998 worked, 1999 and 2000 it did not work well, but in the great low in 2001 and 2002 it worked awesomely. Others of note, in 2008 it worked horribly, 2009 didn’t really work, 2011 (the major top year) it worked well. In 2013-2014 worked horribly. In 2015, pretty good, 2016 was pretty good. So the track record ain’t great. But the problem with this seasonal analysis, is it doesn’t take into account the 2 main factors – what is the overall trend. And if the trend is a trading range/sort of sideways – is it accumulation or distribution. Those are the main factors. So for gold now, my belief is we are still in accumulation combined with an uptrend – the upside part of the accumulation. And how does the market fit into all of that technical position-wise. So currently, it’s about if we can have a deep enough pullback, pre-FOMC. I am concerned about a bit of switching of seasonals. If the reaction is deep enough here, we can maintain some seasonals – so the price mixed with the timing are becoming important. In gold, below 1216 with EA would be an interesting potential. Silver is way overloaded with bulls, as I said in the weekend video. Why did so many people become bullish on silver right into 18.45 and we’re still hearing from people claiming silver was so bullish there.
10 AM: And speaking about theories with horrible track records, you can throw in gold and the stock market always move in opposite directions. At times it works, at times it works horribly. It’s on an individual basis. And looking out into later 2017 and beyond, there will be no better places to be than in an equity market with a weak currency (most of them will be weak vs. gold), in commodities, and in PMs. It’s going to be interesting to watch the free cash flow which the big miners will be generating. Of course they’ll screw it up, but for awhile it will be a big plus.
3/8
9;30 AM: Same from yesterday gold first needed to go below 1216, now the EA is the thing. There is going to be more volatility. Silver came back around support, but breaking these support areas and running sell stops on this overloaded ship would help a lot. Silver is a weird mess right now. To repeat – there are too many silver bulls still. What is wrong with silver permabulls. But like I said in the weekend video, I do expect this process in the miners to leak into the second quarter – with volatility. Second half will be better. It’s been a long wait, but this is accumulation, combined with an uptrend, we’re still subjected to this situation. I made my bearish feelings about PMs known for several years, until December 2015, as listeners of the radio show know very well. I’m no gold permabull, but a secular low is a powerful thing. The secular low was on Dec. 17th for gold, and Jan. 19th for the miners as a group. The fear and volatility are the buying opportunities (big picture). Trading is something else, and it’s even helpful during a layering in process to take some profits on rallies and (potentially) redeploy. The risk is you have less of a position if the rally really kicks in. It happens to me, but I’m fine with it. There are always opportunities in markets. This thing with gold and silver is not a conspiracy, nor manipulation. It’s a market subjected to all of the forces – good vs. evil, bear vs. bull. The gold permabears will have their last hurrahs this first half of 2017.
11 AM: But that’s the way to do it, leave those orders in and roll them, or keep re-sending. We’ve got to have a margin of error in this business. No one gets this right all of the time, except maybe the GURUS. Margin of error is a really important concept to incorporate in an approach. It helps to cement in our minds this notion that we can somehow predict an uncertain outcome. That’s gambling, not taking this seriously and professionally. When we can accept that about ourselves it alleviates some of the stress and pressure we place upon ourselves, because then right from the start we are fine with the notion that we will be flat out wrong at times. But there are so many great opportunities in markets which are constantly arising. So we’re not predicting/guessing, we’re buying and taking some profits, and maybe buying again lower, if it keeps going higher after we sell, so what. Like there will never be another opportunity? And yes. I also have a couple orders much lower in the miners which have been sitting for awhile. My belief is, by next quarter some will be filled. But once again when I was saying (complaining) about selling too early in the beginning of Feb. and miners kept going higher, so now they’re looking better than in early Feb. and certainly where they were on Feb. 8th, and I have those funds which can be redeployed lower. But at the time I looked like an idiot selling too soon.
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