To continue with this post – There was a big divergence yesterday in the stock indexes, especially the IWM vs QQQ. And as talked about yesterday, also in the video yesterday, the high volume selloffs, especially in a general uptrend, can be short-term climactic. I have no position in the indexes, but there was a pretty good short-term setup, maybe using options.
I’ll get back to the outlook soon for gold going forward. But as far as trading PMs, or the big markets in general, the lack of volatility in general is why I usually avoid trading them. Otherwise, it’s just “pressing’. My last 3 trades in miners have been 2 scratches and a winner. And now a loser so far in JNUG. I’m trying to average in, but with the miners now, the stops are no more than 7%. Miners will be a great trading market going forward, especially when GDX gets into the “pure bull market” discussed many times, and again soon.
BTC has it’s first shorter-term support area set up. These are how to start judging (micromanaging) the “secondary rally failures” after the bounce. It’s an extremely volatile market, but it does play in to some things we do in the stock market. And I sold the rest of my SQ in premarket into that resistance talked about in the video. So we’ll see about more new lows in a bit as a potential for something bigger (time-frames).
I did a video back in September about my trade in KR, believing it was putting in a solid bottom, and brought it up again yesterday. I have no position, but it’s soaring today. EA, accum, springs, and SOSes are all the “system” anyone needs. KR is up 40% from that spring. RAD was also discussed with the SOSes. Retailers are a strong group currently, yet we were told to avoid them because of AMZN. Amazing.
The rocket ship in XNET is over, but there is bounce potential with a break thru support. Like XNET, a lot of the recent rocket ships are finished. We talked about the “serious resistance” in ROKU two days ago. And I’m watching for a bounce trade setup in there.
Hello Scott. Got a few questions on missing trades on a potential trade.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WsgJ5CCB/ Gold chart with a missed trade.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZTiCAKHs/ GDX missed trade.
A) How good do you think my entry point attempt for both Gold & GDX are?If so is there something that I could had done differently to improve it?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kr54lgiY/ 5min chart
B)For the gold chart. I was using the hourly chart as a means of analyzing the trade setup.
Unlike the hourly chart the 5 min chart had plenty of EA (near a hourly support). For this reason I was considering going long with a market order. Would it be a low probability trade to go long near an hourly chart support area by looking at EA on a 5 min instead of EA on an hourly chart?
A) A bit off-topic, but totally relevant. I’ve mentioned a couple of times recently, I’m not doing much with PMs now, because there just isn’t anything in here that is compelling trade-wise. So I don’t spend a lot of time with them in here, they are getting “smooshed”. It’s a big reason why I used the dumb news rally on Friday to take profits. There are so many other excellent trading opportunities elsewhere. My last 4 trades in PMs, scratch, scratch, profit, 1/2 profit so far. Not real great, but not bad considering the tightness of the area. They need more room. Until then, it’s just pressing them.
As to your entries, they are OK, considering what I just talked about. Couple things. If you did use a market order in there, and got filled, would you have sold into the spike? Big part of the equation here, considering how tight this is. And that area is mid-range, and again why I was willing to do selling into the news. With mid-range trading, you need to really shorten your time-frame, UNLESS you are in accumulation mode. Also, you could have waited a bit, and see if there is a push lower into the bottom of the range. But there just aren’t good setups in here, except very leveraged and very quick. If I’m going to do that, there are better ways. I’m not doing that with gold. I don’t short-term trade gold anymore, tho Friday was a nice example of that possibility. but meantime, the other trades I did like XNET, or SQ. Neither one of them necessitated day-trades. Just a thought.
B) Yes you can use the 5 in conjunction with the 60, but are you trading the 5 or the 60. Not to confuse, but I use the 5 to trade the 60, but I am using the setup on the 60 itself, with that time-frame, and using the 5 to dig into the 60 internals. Yes 60 support is more powerful, so that is important to know. Other side, I use the 60 to trade the 5, understanding my time-frame there also. And I don’t know if that is EA as much as SA (stopping action). Again, this thing is in a range in here, and if you’re going to trade this, you have to shorten your time-frame, and be willing to sell rallies. It needs a really identifiable setup. The big trend I know, and this trading range, within it it’s little zigs. So please keep that in mind with your judgement of setups now. Also, make sure you know your specific trade setup. Can you name it? All of those specific named trades (123 springs, secondary rally spring after BC, etc.) I have those in my head, because of feeling good about the probability #s. What is your trade you were looking at here. If you know it excellent. Please know the specifics. If you’re watching a stock/market and it doesn’t give you specifics, then do nothing. Analyzing is not the same thing as a SPECIFIC setup. Analyzing is the preparation work only. Trading is trading. My mentor Sheldon, awesome trader, very little “conscious” analysis “skill”, outstanding trading skills. A lot of experience in his head. But good analyzing can really give confidence to step up.