3/13:
It’s Fed week again, so expect more volatility. Gold has had its’ initial rally from the $1194 oversold low, up to $1211. A bigger rally from here will need more re-testing of the lows, possibly a push to new lows. Silver is still overloaded with bulls, and I expect new lows there. I sold some MUX into the rally Friday, ahead of expected volatility. These stupid Fed meetings will become relics someday, as the bond bear market really kicks in next year and beyond. That bear market will “signal” the loss of power and prestige of central banking. The Russell 2000 is once again lagging the Dow, and a new low for the year would be a warning flag overall. Oil is a problem and is intertwines with junk bonds.
This is going to be a volatile European election year, especially France coming up in May, with Marine Le Pen doing very well in the polls. This Wednesday is Dutch elections with wildman Geert Wilders trying to upend things. The insiders/globalists are losing their power, and this will continue. These uprisings are very bullish for gold, and commodities over the next several years, but the volatility surrounding them can cause us to lose focus. Stay focused, have a plan, and be patient waiting for the opportunities – ignore the useless spin on the news. The “news’ should fit into your plan, but it should NOT be the basis for your plan. The news should fit within the trend, not alter it. Use the misinterpretation of news, as an opportunity, not as a reason to freak out.
3/14:
8:45 AM: Crude oil set another new low for the move from the $55 high. The problem is there is no support until $42.20. This weakness in crude is going to continue to put pressure on junk bonds, and with the intertwining of markets – stocks. Crude has also broken its’ uptrend demand line, but with the perversity of markets, the breaks of trendlines often lead to shorter term backups. The Saudis surprisingly raising production, and there is a glut of oil, along with a very high weak handed short position.
Inflation continues ahead, as the PPI year over year increased at the fastest pace in 5 years. The rate increase tomorrow is baked in, and the confidence level in the economy is very high, but the stock market is not reflecting the distinct possibility of disappointment in Trump’s agenda. With the FOMC tomorrow, this is not a great place to make big bets, but have areas planned out for entry points, and ignore what the Fed says. The support in gold is $1194.50, but silver is still overloaded with bulls. May is the next potential for an excellent bottom in PMs. And currencies are trading in ranges currently, good for very short term trades.
A stock we’ve been following on our Watchlist, AUPH, has had a huge run, but is down big premarket. Let’s see if something sets up there. And a few others on the Watchlist, some we have positions in are OCRX, INNL, ICLD, POT.
3/15
9 AM: The Fed follows markets – always. In September 2015, I wrote a post about how the Fed will be raising rates soon, and they will keep raising rates. How did I “know” that – because the market was already telling the Fed to eaise rates, and they were way behind. So now as CPI and PPI number are running hot, and above their “forecast”, now the Fed is figuring out there is an inflation problem building. They are only 12 months behind – the inflation bottomed in March of last year. But inflation will ebb and flow, and we are probably putting in a high in inflation right now, so the fed will be hiking into an intermediate top in inflation. While the economic numbers are also starting to soften. They do this every time, because they’re clowns who should be replaced by robots.
So Fed day, and I’m not making any big bets on any market. There are a couple of biotechs I’m watching. Markets – currencies are still in small ranges pre-Fed. Gold support is 1194, crude oil is in a downtrend, but bouncing, and bonds came back to support yesterday. And look at ENNP – good example of a lousy trade setup for gap a gap up trade. Markets are about setups, and how to filter.
10 AM: NUGT into gap
10:30 AM: ETRM, OCRX, AUPH, and from Larry – ADMP. Also did a scalp short in NUGT. It was a specific numbered trade setup, focused on in and out, gain or loss – with the selloff into yesterday’s close, and the usual “panic” buy at the open, and use the gap to cover, and go long. Also silver went to a new low today, which is helpful, but I bought none, and have no plans – maybe in May.
10:40 AM: And I just moved my stop up to break even in NUGT, not messing around with Fed nonsense – 7.62. My plan today was scalps, if they set up. Some other stocks like biotech, etc. don’t really care about the Fed much – and I totally agree with them.
11:50 AM: Sold half NUGT at 7.98.
1 PM: I still believe bond yields are headed quite a bit lower, before they head much, much, etc. higher. This is a contrarian trade. Long TLT on weakness is still a good trade.
1:50 PM: Just sold the rest of NUGT 8.10, do not want to deal with the volatility at 2 PM. Surviving this business means staying sane. Let’s see if the volatility brings new entry points.
3/16
9:25 AM: As I said in the weekend video, the $ on an intermediate basis was concerning. And the USDJPY was poised to “catch up” (my words) to the upmove in the Euro. Now the $ is at a short term support area and “breaking it” with EA would set up a short term rally. Markets zig and zag. We get focused on certain points on charts, and can miss the zag – that is what short term trading is – the zags. And for those trading currencies, the components of the $ Index itself have different weightings. The Euro has the highest and thus the most influence on the price movement. So it makes it trickier to trade the other currencies vs. the $ Index, because of the outsized influence of the Euro. The reason I said to expect the Yen to catch up, was because the $ itself was seeing distribution above 101.74, and the other currencies would begin to benefit. The selloff in the $ has potential to go into month end, but with a very sharp rally in April. So a strong technical selling climax and retesting would thus set that up.
Gold is continuing higher, as is silver, but I’m still concerned about silver.
TNA is an ETF which I use to trade the Russell 2000, and the IWM has a gap above it, so that is also a focus for me.
9:40 AM: Took some profits in FNV.
3/17
9:28 AM From last night’s video – the Euro has a good chance of putting in an interim high today thru Monday. And the TNA short trade from yesterday into the gap. The $, gold, and USDJPY tied together.
10:30 AM From yesterday AM: The selloff in the stock market is going to come “out of the blue”. People are conditioned at this point like a beautiful well-trained dog. Every minor selloff is a buy. They need to be stunned, and then we start to see sell stops hit. Yes there are actually sell stops underneath the stock market. TNA (IWM), which I wrote about in the pre-market comment, traded up to fill the gap.
10:42 AM: To repeat – bigger selling in stocks would help gold a bit, initially. I’m still worried about silver, just like when it was 18.45, but not as much now. Of course I was worried about silver at 18, and it still went to 18.50, so there.
12:06 AM: I am still short 1/2 position in TNA from the gap yesterday, covered 1/2 this AM, and stop in at entry – 107.39.
3: 05 PM: Covered rest of short for break even – once again why taking partial profits is so important – this business is about making profits/getting out of risk, and staying calm. It’s very calming to take partial profits, even if too early. Markets are about surviving. I’ve seen a lot of really good traders disappear, because they were always gunning for the huge trades. and a lot of them were drug users and unhealthy spiritually, emotionally, physically, and psychologically.
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