Below is a portion of the pre-market and intraday comments from 3/20/17. These updates and comments are offered daily to our paid subscribers. We publish a few excerpts once a week to share with the public to show one of the many benefits of becoming a paid subscriber:
9:00 AM Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader: “Last August, “smart money” commercial hedgers in S&P 500 futures were net short about $24 billion worth of the full and e-mini contracts. As stocks declined into October, they covered and went net long. Even as stocks climbed, they added to their positions, ultimately having long exposure worth about $13 billion…
They’ve been selling into the rally, per usual, and as of Tuesday, they were net short about $29 billion worth of the S&P, the most since January 2015. Along with big short positions in the Nasdaq 100 and DJIA, their total short exposure has increased to $62 billion, the 2nd-highest in history.”
The sentiment turned super bullish right into the March 1st top, with people trying to decipher when the Dow would hit 25k. Instead there was an upthrust. I have no position in TNA currently, but I’m watching for a setup. That setup would first include a selloff on a pickup on relative volume, and then another rally to short into. The Euro bank stocks should be monitored for warning signs of the overall market..selling in those stocks will probably not be taken seriously enough at first, but they will be noticed soon enough.
Silver continues to concern me. The GDX has resistance above [details for subscribers only], but reactions….
The Euro has a time frame from [details for subscribers only] for an interim top, a reaction, and then a possible push to higher highs, but all within a bigger top leading into a potential [details for subscribers only] bottom. The [details for subscribers only] bottom could be a good one.
Stocks – NAK, IPI – for trading, and a tiny one USRM is interesting short term trading. Also SFM and GPRO are examples of beaten down stocks which started showing life, and they have huge short positions.
3:45 PM: The bond market continues to strengthen with the TLT chart which I showed yesterday in the newsletter. It’s just trading a trading range. An interim Euro top in [details for subscribers only] time window would likely still be followed by one more attempted rally, before a bigger top and a push into/below [details for subscribers only] Let’s see where we are, but this would sync up with a time frame for the next opportunity in PMs. And by then silver could have shed some of the overloading of weak handed leveraged speculators. Crude oil attempted to bounce today, but intermediate term, there’s nothing there for me. Later this summer is a target now for a solid low, and then the shares would be an opportunity. The junk bond market is very concerning, and it will ripple thru other markets. It’s tied in closely with crude oil and frackers. The volume in the stock market on the selling was fairly contained, and it set up a long side daytrade for some people into the lows, but I did nothing with it. The backups in the miners for now are still opportunities. And the NAK stock is having a good day, and that accumulation area which I talked about in the newsletter yesterday. There was a short term momentum trade there today, but overall the weakness has been a very good opportunity to buy. These little penny stocks – [details for subscribers only]
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