Did you read my last post about the stock market. Do you understand how beautifully I had that mapped out – WAY WAY AHEAD OF TIME? Do you know how many people got this rally totally wrong? Do you know how many retarded permabears blew it once again? But is there a change coming? Discussion of this later.
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The following question was recently posted. And then my answer. Do you understand how fricking hard that I work at this? As does EVERYONE else who has made it and continues to do very well? My answer explains a lot about how to do this business very well.
The question is about my “range stuff” trend test. There are many recent posts about it. It is an OUTSTANDING tool that I developed for myself. Go back and view the posts where I discuss it – if you want to learn this stuff and start getting huge returns, then you will do that. If you want to continue losing, then you won’t view the posts. I did copy and paste one of them down below. A 12% trade in AKTX in less than an hour, completely based on my recognition of when AKTX was going to a new high for the day – where/when so so many people are buying the “BREAKOUT”- BUT this one, AKTX, was NOT a breakout, but actually a top, which I then shorted into after the first break and then the quick rally back. So – how did I know – IN REAL TIME – that you should NOT buy the “BKO”?
QUESTION:
Quick questions about probabilities.
A)When determining a probability of something any value in looking at rear view mirror?If so, I’m I missing something by not doing in real time?
B)Does it matter what time frame when determining a probability?
The “range stuff” is quite complex a video explanation would be fantastic.
BTW thanks for the post.
ANSWER:
You’re looking for repeatable patterns. The right way to do it is to observe observe observe, you start to see a pattern emerge. You start to get the details written down. THAT is when you go in the rear view and look for other examples for yourself. Then you track it, start getting the probabilities worked out, THEN you must start attempting real trades with it, it is the only way, you MUST MUST MUST take some losses, WHY? Because it is all probabilities – then you see if it is even worth continuing with it, based on the probabilities. But there is never wasted effort, because everything you do in markets can lead to something, either worth it or possibly part of something different. So yes, the rearview is helpful, just don’t get stuck always in a rear view.
Time frames, yes one of the main reasons people fail, they never understand time frames, and they sit on their fat asses and complain that markets are rigged and manipulated. Which they are. So then how did I make a lot of money at this business, no down year in 20 years. And how did plenty of other people that I know do something similar. And so many others. I thought it’s all manipulated and no one can do this.
Yes the range stuff is VERY complex. It took me a long time from the very start when it first hit me that it could work, lost plenty of money developing it, but it is a wonderful tool, everything it incorporates in it are things which I have taught and you should already know, I tried to teach it with the subs – but people don’t listen, work, pay attention. It was all there for the learning. It’s all about the trend. EVERYTHING IS ABOUT THE TREND.
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My previous post:
There have been numerous posts done discussing my proprietary and outstanding method – my “trend determination test” – of how I determine when a stock is breaking out, UPTREND, or when a stock is NOT breaking out, UPTHRUST. This is a HUGE – profit generator/risk reducer/winning percentage increaser – HUGE. Most people struggle with – when are stocks actually breaking out/not putting in a top, meaning – when they go to a new high, literally begin ticking above res and into new highs.
So then – HOW IN REAL TIME can I consistently decipher/recognize which stocks are actually breaking out, hence they should be bought right then or into a dip – hence potentially very big move higher coming – meaning no or very little Overhead Supply PLUS it is when there is Readiness-to-move – PROFIT GENERATOR/WINNING % INCREASER? Or when is that ticking into new highs actually NOT A BKO and thus is an upthrust – hence, DO NOT BUY IT – meaning a RISK REDUCER/WINNING % INCREASER?
This method is a fantastic strategy to use with the wild huge early morning runner stocks, up 50% or more.
Today AKTX was flying high in pm trading, it opened up HUGE. It then pulled back and had an excellent rally. I did not trade that rally, I was concerned about the technical situation, was not sure about it ACTUALLY being in an uptrend. So I watched, waited to see if AKTX successfully passed my “trend determination test”. So while a HORDE of people were buying AKTX right into the top, I told people:
“This is a ‘range stuff’ (my own name for the technical situation description). Not a BKO. Look at volume, and at pm high res.” Exactly what the situation was. It did NOT successfully pass my test.
So, again, I was able to keep people out and avoiding buying AKTX – risk reducer/winning % increaser. PLUS it was a profit generator/winning % increaser for people who shorted it.
In my small margin account (I use my small cash account for long side trading of small stocks only) I shorted AKTX, and covered it much too early but 12% in less than an hour, took a daytrade for PDT purposes – charts below – study study study study the charts.
Do you want to be able to do this/recognize this in real-time? How much better do you think your winning % could be and how much money do you think you could make if you had real-time access to this outstanding advice?
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