There have been numerous posts done discussing my proprietary and outstanding method – my “trend determination test” – of how I determine when a stock is breaking out, UPTREND, or when a stock is NOT breaking out, UPTHRUST. This is a HUGE – profit generator/risk reducer/winning percentage increaser – HUGE. Most people struggle with – when are stocks actually breaking out/not putting in a top, meaning – when they go to a new high, literally begin ticking above res and into new highs.
So then – HOW IN REAL TIME can I consistently decipher/recognize which stocks are actually breaking out, hence they should be bought right then or into a dip – hence potentially very big move higher coming – meaning no or very little Overhead Supply PLUS it is when there is Readiness-to-move – PROFIT GENERATOR/WINNING % INCREASER? Or when is that ticking into new highs actually NOT A BKO and thus is an upthrust – hence, DO NOT BUY IT – meaning a RISK REDUCER/WINNING % INCREASER?
This method is a fantastic strategy to use with the wild huge early morning runner stocks, up 50% or more.
Today AKTX was flying high in pm trading, it opened up HUGE. It then pulled back and had an excellent rally. I did not trade that rally, I was concerned about the technical situation, was not sure about it ACTUALLY being in an uptrend. So I watched, waited to see if AKTX successfully passed my “trend determination test”. So while a HORDE of people were buying AKTX right into the top, I told people:
“This is a ‘range stuff’ (my own name for the technical situation description). Not a BKO. Look at volume, and at pm high res.” Exactly what the situation was. It did NOT successfully pass my test.
So, again, I was able to keep people out and avoiding buying AKTX – risk reducer/winning % increaser. PLUS it was a profit generator/winning % increaser for people who shorted it.
In my small margin account (I use my small cash account for long side trading of small stocks only) I shorted AKTX, and covered it much too early but 12% in less than an hour, took a daytrade for PDT purposes – charts below – study study study study the charts.
Do you want to be able to do this/recognize this in real-time? How much better do you think your winning % could be and how much money do you think you could make if you had real-time access to this outstanding advice?
Still digesting recognizing the Range Stuff. I see the lack of building volume on the ascent, many crumby mid-range closes, and the PM resistance is huge.
I for one would be very interested in your “real time access” offer.
Dave it’s always nice to see your hard work and your appreciation for what I share. Just keep working hard at this. The trend test took me a long time to develop, it is much more valuable for the very volatile small stocks. There are many layers to it, and just understanding very well how to implement it. It’s purely another probability tool, there are no certainties in this business, just getting the probabilities higher and higher and keep honing. It’s just another tool I developed, but very helpful. As far as a new less expensive premium service, I’ve tried to get interest going in it, with all of the trading posts the last few months, and see if it would be worth my time to pursue it, and it’s not there and I’m not wasting my time trying any more. I’m not sure how much longer I’ll be doing this, but you have my contact info.
Quick questions about probabilities.
A)When determining a probability of something any value in looking at rear view mirror?If so, I’m I missing something by not doing in real time?
B)Does it matter what time frame when determining a probability?
The “range stuff” is quite complex a video explanation would be fantastic.
BTW thanks for the post.
You’re looking for repeatable patterns. The right way to do it is to observe observe observe, you start to see a pattern emerge. You start to get the details written down. THAT is when you go in the rear view and look for other examples for yourself. Then you track it, start getting the probabilities worked out, THEN you must start attempting real trades with it, it is the only way, you MUST MUST MUST take some losses, WHY? Because it is all probabilities – then see if it is even worth continuing with it, based on the probabilities. But there is never wasted effort because everything you do in markets can lead to something, either worth it or possibly part of something different. So yes, the rearview is helpful, just don’t get stuck always in a rear view.
Time frames, yes one of the main reasons people fail, they never understand time frames, and they sit on their fat asses and complain that markets are rigged and manipulated. Which they are. So then how did I make a lot of money at this business, no down year in 20 years. And how did plenty of other people that I know do something similar. And so many others. I thought it’s all manipulated and no one can do this.
Yes the range stuff is VERY complex. It took me a long time from the very start when it first hit me that it could work, lost plenty of money developing it, but it is a wonderful tool, everything it incorporates in it are things which I have taught and you should already know, I tried to teach it with the subs but people don’t listen, work, pay attention. It was all there for the learning. It’s all about the trend. EVERYTHING IS ABOUT THE TREND.
Let me try to rephrase the B) question.
B-re) Upon determining a probability of something using a specific time frame lets say a 1 min. Does the same probability applies to other time frames ? (in other words the probability of a setup on a 1 min chart differed on a 15min, 1H etc?)
“everything it incorporates in it are things which I have taught and you should already know”& “It’s all about the trend. EVERYTHING IS ABOUT THE TREND.”So, are you indirectly implying that a post like the”Uptrend check list “contains the key summary to all this?
Remember I’ve repeating 1000x, everything in this business is about probabilities. What is the best way to work with those? SETUPS SETUPS SETUPS. And when/where/how to employ A SPECIFIC setup?
Each one can only be employed into the correct specific technical situation. There are numerous technical situations. And I have setups for a whole bunch of technical situations. But I have constantly tried to get people to focus mainly on a STRONG BKO, hence the strong uptrend. So this trend test is a SETUP in itself. I need to convince myself that the trend is UP. Then I am looking to use another specific setup for that specific situation. And in the case with these little stocks, I’m using 1 and 5 minute charts. So – you can only use a specific time frame per specific setup. You develop each setup for a specific time frame. Probabilities are NOT interchangeable. What works very well with the smallest stocks may not work well with the bigger stocks and visa versa. And with the biggest stocks, I’m using 5 and 60 and daily/weekly.
So in the real world, pull up the charts of stocks I traded yesterday and see why I would be doing these, go in and do the work on these figure things out for yourself, just like I did or other excellent traders have always done. And all of the stocks were winners except MARA, small loss in MARA – ZIXI, MAXR, UCTT. all around 10% those are all bigger stocks, plus EVLV was my big winner, 20%. Also look at YUMA and DXXR, I missed those but they are also excellent examples. Each one of these, I needed to be convinced that the TREND WAS UP – BEFORE BEFORE – I attempted to employ one of my UPTREND setups.
The uptrend checklist is a general concept for it, yes. But there is much more to it, however there is nothing magical in that trend test. So yes, everything in there, my test, are things I taught. I put it all together for myself.
And again, it’s all probabilities and psychology and mental strength and work work work. I lose money just like any one else does. It’s all PROBABILITIES, so yes I lose sometimes, just a lot less than most people, for me around 20% of the time. And occasionally I have big losing days, I’ve had an excellent year, but 2 big losing days this year.