While I assume that the geniuses from the Social Justice Warrior “movement” would claim I’m a climate change denier, I do actually believe in “climate change”. But as opposed to the believers in the trendy “theory” of climate change, anyone with an IQ above an earthworm knows we’ve had climate change on this Planet for eons. So is the Earth currently warming or cooling or neither or both? I believe the weight of the evidence is that currently the earth is in a cyclical cooling phase. And what does this have to do with markets? Well specifically to agriculture, maybe nothing or maybe a lot. I understand the last statement is completely useless. But that’s the point. Everything I’ve written so far should have nothing to do with your judgement regarding markets – specifically RIGHT NOW is the RISK low enough and are the PROBABILITIES high enough to justify an investment. I am wildly bullish long term on agriculture, but neither global warming (nor global cooling) will influence my wager/bet/investment in any way. Only my judgement on what the future TREND of agriculture will be has any bearing on my actions. And that judgement is generally based upon my analysis of the SUPPLY/DEMAND situation. That’s where my constant repetition about learning the interaction between PRICE and VOLUME on a chart fits in. That is by far the best way to determine when, where, how long and how far the next big move in a market will be. And I’ll repeat – the master of all of this was the great Richard Wyckoff. Below there is a chart of wheat going back 40 years. Most agriculture markets are showing the similar tendency. What I believe is going on is a humongous area of accumulation. I previously wrote starting several years ago (archived), that I did expect that in general the commodity bear market which began in 2009 would end in the Spring of 2016, which I maintain still. If I’m correct (and I, of course, believe that I am, but we will eventually find out), then agriculture is embarking on a massive bull market/uptrend. Of course, the question which is always of utmost importance to me: “When will the big moves higher commence?” No one, especially myself, knows the exact answer to that. This is all about the concept of RISK. So what I do is to use my experience in judging SUPPLY/DEMAND via PRICE and VOLUME (shown on the chart below). And I do believe DEMAND is taking control of the market. Therefore, I am using price weakness to add to my position at SUPPORT to buy the RJA ETF. RJA is shown in the second chart below – a ten year weekly chart. So to recap. I do believe the Earth is cooling. But in no way is that why I’m investing in agriculture. I’m investing in agriculture, because of my belief in a huge ACCUMULATION area, which will lead to a massive bull market. And the RISK is currently justifying beginning to buy into weakness at SUPPORT. HOWEVER, any extreme temperature changes will only serve to supercharge the potential UPTREND. And I always like to have that potential turbo charger behind me when I make any investment. Like when I bought gold in 1999, 2008, and 2015/16 (in 2016 specifically gold stocks, like GDX and GDXJ) or when I bought US Govt. Bonds in 2000 or when I bought stocks in 2009. (Look at the archives where I discussed these many times.) All of these purchases were made because of my belief in a massive bull market about to commence, but each situation had a particular turbo charger potential attached to it also. And lastly I included an article which made me chuckle, but I’d imagine the trendy climate changers won’t want you to read. The article from the Daily Caller is shown below. |
Submitted by Craig Boudreau via The Daily Caller, A group of adventurers, sailors, pilots and climate scientists that recently started a journey around the North Pole in an effort to show the lack of ice, has been blocked from further travels by ice.
The Polar Ocean Challenge is taking a two month journey that will see them go from Bristol, Alaska, to Norway, then to Russia through the North East passage, back to Alaska through the North West passage, to Greenland and then ultimately back to Bristol. Their objective, as laid out by their website, was to demonstrate “that the Arctic sea ice coverage shrinks back so far now in the summer months that sea that was permanently locked up now can allow passage through.” There has been one small hiccup thus-far though: they are currently stuck in Murmansk, Russia because there is too much ice blocking the North East passage the team said didn’t exist in summer months, according to Real Climate Science. Real Climate Science also provides a graph showing that current Arctic temperatures — despite alarmist claims of the Arctic being hotter than ever — is actually below normal. The Polar Ocean Challenge team is not the first global warming expedition to be faced with icy troubles. In 2013, an Antarctic research vessel named Akademik Shokalskiy became trapped in the ice, the problem was so severe that they actually had to rescue the 52 crew members. In 2015 a Canadian ice breaking ship, the CCGS Amundsen, was forced to reroute and help a number of supply ships that had become trapped by ice. The icy blockade comes just over a month after an Oxford climate scientist, Peter Wadhams, said the Arctic would be ‘completely ice-free’ by September of this year. While it obviously isn’t September yet, he did reference the fact that there would be very little ice to contend with this summer. “Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year,” Wadhams told The Independent in June. Wahdams says he expects less than one million square kilometers by summers end, but the current amount of Arctic sea ice is 10.6 million square kilometers, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The NSIDC puts the rate of ice loss for June at just about 60,ooo square kilometers a day. If that number were to hold, it would take approximately 160 days for the Arctic to dip down to the predicted one million square kilometers. |
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