The following post (below the dashed lines) is from 12/2017 – when BTC was soaring virtually every day (into a massive top), when it was EASY MONEY, when you had to be a moron to not own it, and when virtually everyone was massively bullish on BTC (except for the “losers” who did not own it). And it was also a time when I wrote multiple posts advising to be extremely cautious about putting any NEW capital into crypto investments – and to ONLY TRADE the cryptos – again to reiterate – only trade them.
Also, multiple posts were written then about the STUPID STUPID theories which pop up AFTER a huge run in a market has already taken place – when THE TREND is very powerful. Theories are absolutely useless, but they sound super convincing WHEN, yes again to repeat, there is a powerful trend. Just look at all the total morons who had all kinds of stupid theories the last few years about why the idiot woke tech stocks were soaring. Well at the same time I was giving tons of cautious commentary about the techs, stating that they were coming up into a MULTI- DECADE top. And now look what has happened to them having gotten creamed. And there are years of more new lows ahead. There will be more about this topic to come.
Here is what I said back then (12/2017) in italics in the post below –
“Every time there’s a huge run in a market, there are always rearview mirror theories made up about the “price action”. And the “confirmation” with the “price action” gets the permabulls to enlist the new permabulls to their ranks. And they get very arrogant, and downright nasty, to anyone who would dare to disagree with their theories. Well gosh, why not. I mean look at the price action. Like 2011 with PMs or the last few years in bonds.”
As I stated back then, and written in the 12/2017 post below, they are ALL GOING TO ZERO eventually, except for BTC. And yes we are seeing one after another get wiped out. And the “investors” still holding them – they will never get their money back. So again – you either learn to TRADE, – or wipe out your account – it is your choice.
Lastly, right into massive top in BTC, literally on the day of the high – 11/9/2021 – I believed that BTC and ALL CRYPTOS had finished their massive uptrend – that chart next – click to view –
and on 12/8/2021, I reiterated that a massive top was in and we are headed much lower – that chart next – click to view –
and we are headed to 10,000 in BTC. Most cryptos, including Ethereum, are going to zero.
The 12/2017 post is below:
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Time-frame confusion is a killer in markets, but is a must to get a handle on as it’s so helpful to work thru it. And with our discussion of so many of the big tops in the crypto stocks, so when things have had a big/huge run, preliminary supply, and then the BC, I’m willing to trade, but “cut way back” – position size and time-frame. While the BTC permabears have been making their claims, I’ve been short-term trading some crypto stocks, and on net racking up profits. At the same time aware of the huge runs, big EA areas, and the total arrogance of the BTC permabulls. Every time there’s a huge run in a market, there are always rearview mirror theories made up about the “price action”. And the “confirmation” with the “price action” gets the permabulls to enlist the new permabulls to their ranks. And they get very arrogant, and downright nasty, to anyone who would dare to disagree with their theories. Well gosh, why not. I mean look at the price action. Like 2011 with PMs or the last few years in bonds.
And we have to know when to “invest” and when to just downright trade. Do not ever think of investing when something has had a huge run, and everyone around you is making money in that market. Just trade.
Yesterday I left these comments –
“I’m “giving BTC plenty of room”, thus willing to take some shots in this area as it’s sold off. There has been so much speculation in the crypto stocks, so for me that means cut back, so and/or time-frame, position size, even trade setup-wise actually with parameters. So putting it together, today took two small losses in DPW and NXTD. And giving it another shot, and actually as I’m writing this NXTD surging back into resistance and I’m taking my profits at 6.04. What I was going to write was if this trade didn’t work I’m done with these today. Might be taking a loss in MGTI, just what I said this morning. Dumb maneuver. I’ll update trades later.
NXTD halted, a good reaction, and then see about a long-side setup. NVFY should see more opportunity. BTC itself watching for break of those lows, and see where we’re at. So much speculation in crypto stocks.
Bonds with a nice bounce today, could be a good one with the holiday coming up. And there goes NXTD moving higher. Sold way too early, how unusual. And now it’s halted. I believe #6 halt of the day. It’s my point about cutting way back.”
And some recent premarket comments about how I’m approaching BTC, via my approach to all markets always. All of the hyperbole surrounding this stuff, I’ll just focus on trading:
Today LTEA is a classic late 90s move. Recently it’s been SIEB, DPW, LFIN, INTV, SSC, yesterday NETE and NXTD. Today NVFY is continuing to try and pump itself up again via cryptos. The premarket chart is below. But this stuff is 1997-March 2000+ all over again.
A lot of volatility, “give it plenty of room”, but gosh the BTC bulls are getting confident, stubborn, and arrogant actually. The price action is “confirming” their theories.
I’m trying to work out how reliable the volume is with BTC, and those exchanges, but another support area to watch – secondary rally/spring failure areas and shorter-term spring areas. That list of crypo stocks for short-term trade opportunities today, but being aware of the time-frame and some upthrusting and some wild speculation in these names.
Secondary rallies (here is a video about this discussion) are an excellent analysis tool, and they are also a specific type of trade setup to be looking for – springs also. As talked about before, I knew guys on the trading floor at CBOE who did very well by doing the “contrary” trade setup of looking to short into the automatic rally after the preliminary support in a downtrend. The PS marks a bullish event shorter-term, and has meaning down the road. But that PS low will almost always be retested, and a new low will be set – meaning by waiting for the rally to take place, that specific trade is a very high probability event. Markets are all about probabilities and risk (it’s hard to tell one from another actually).
That time 20 years ago is when I began learning to try to stay away from hyperbole, and just stick to tools – and trade. For people who constantly worry about crashes, do they understand about using some kind of exit strategy – and stay optimistic. Risk control. There will be big, very big, huge selloffs. BTC itself going to zero? It is not remotely my view. Other individual cryptos, absolutely, same as the 1990s.
And like then, when companies (even legitimate ones) knew how to pump up their stock with .com or “net” stuff. Now it’s blockchain, crypto stuff. SIEB is the latest one.
So with BTC, all of the hyperbole, emotion, predicting. But itself is just another market, it’s had a huge run, so cut back on things. Blockchain plus cryptocurrencies (the technology) themselves, are sort of like the internet itself in the 90s. And the stocks of today’s environment related to that idea.
And today BTC has had a big selloff, but it’s some of the other cryptos which have gotten clobbered, some down 50%. This morning, I took a 10% loss in an MGTI long from 4.95. Even on the way down BTC has had 2 excellent 10%+ spring trade opportunities. Even that one overnight when I had already printed out the chart. There was another quick rally after that. As far as my investing approach in anything, except for very specific situations, I never invest unless something has fallen at least 50%. That is only step one. So BTC itself, that’s around 9500. I’m in no hurry. The stocks themselves. still pure trading for now, let this thing play out. And now we get to test the theory, in the other direction, whether BTC is taking demand away from gold. In yesterday’s mid-day comments, I bought NSRPF at 2.85.
CANN, discussed in the recent trading post, a big winner, took some profits, but up over 50%. I ran that CANN chart, with those 2 support areas, several times the last few weeks. I traded the first one for an overnight profit, but exited, and said specifically in the video “a much bigger trade would need lower lows”. We keep giving opportunities. Just focused on trading.
I’ll get yesterday’s trades, in DPW (loser) and NXTD (loser and winner) and charts posted during the day today. There’s that group of cryptos, those are the ones to keep watch on for position trades, as this shakes out.
Watching MSRT, CORT, INPX.
Merry Xmas.
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