Trader Scott
We are in deep trouble on this Planet regarding our food supply. It seems that people are convinced of global warming or global cooling, but not many are in between. But it doesn’t even matter in regards to our food supply – it’s in big trouble no matter what the “climate” is going forward. We should all be able to agree to view this as a top priority. And some well-meaning private citizens do. But about 99% of our “leaders” are pushing their global warming (climate change) agenda. Maybe they’re right about global warming, but then why are they using fraudulent science. And why are the global cooling researchers being mocked, ridiculed and disregarded. All of these issues are discussed in this previous post.
So it’s possible to disagree about the big picture climate situation, agree on some issues, but certainly come up with the same scenario. We’re in big trouble, and almost nothing time-wise or funding-wise is going there. And as far as funding-wise, we can again disagree – zero government or all/mostly government. And again, the same scenario remains – we’re screwed. But it’s fair to ask, why is virtually all funding, government or “private” (politically correct funding?), going into “climate change”. But no funding/research/concern is going towards the problems of pesticide run-off, toxic waste, and massive monocrop factory farms. Of course there is the GMO debate. And there are those working on building seed banks, heirloom seeds, and preserving species, as many species are going extinct.
Of course all of this adds up to one thing – a very bullish agriculture sector, which is about as cheap as anything out there in this QEd to death world. A great comment came in from a farmer pointing out that farmers are hard working and resilient. That is correct, but globally farming has become a very undesirable business in many countries. In general, ags have been in a decades long trading range, even with the surges from several years ago, many ags are right back in their trading ranges, like wheat, which has been a horrible performer. And farmers in many countries are giving up, and their children want nothing to do with farming. So the age of the farmers is going up, the interest in farming is falling, and it’s only the higher prices which will revive the sector. RJA has been a holding of mine since last March, and the ag stocks are very interesting – SOIL is an ETF which I own. POT, MOS, CF, and IPI are other ag stocks to look at – do your due diligence.
This YouTube video is beautifully shot, and whatever side you’re on keep an open mind – because the endgame is extremely concerning.
Hi scott,
Would be grateful if you could in the future do an extensive video on ags….kind of what you see and what should play out and when. I have been tracking the space since you began talking about it…..but I know very little about it and the only person I know who knows anything is Gartman….kind of scary !!!!
I will Aamer. RJA is still the base part, and fill in with stocks, like SOIL.
Hi Scott, happy to see the link I had sent being shared 🙂
It’s a serious situation Jay, and virtually no one has any concerns – why?, because of the market. Prices in markets drives the news. People think news drives market prices – wrong. Wait until second half of ’17. Changing narrative, and 2 years from now – oh boy.
Hi Scott, I agree with you on the part that whether it be global warning or cooling or change in weather pattern/erratic weather, our food supply will be impacted.
I also agree with the gentlemen in the video that the seeds are used to the current weather and us (we provide water, fertilizers etc) will not give same kind of harvest when climate changes.
I may be thinking too much but if the seeds will not give expected output, wouldnt that also negatively impact the stocks of companies that are providing GMO seeds or fertilizers/pesticides to support the seeds?
It’s a good question Jay, and that part of it is not bullish, but what about all of the other moving parts of this – dynamic approach. What about crappy soybeans at 4x the price as they are now, for example. And I still believe a better approach is to overweight the commodities themselves (RJA), and have a smaller part in the shares.
Thanks Scott, “overweight the commodities themselves (RJA), and have a smaller part in the shares.” makes lot of sense now.
Right, and for investing, only on weakness. For trading, you can see that ag stock I gave you guys this AM, it’s a momentum break out stock today. My partner bought that stock on the breakout today. And I bought the other teeny-weeny biotech stock I included – bought it at .035 and just sold 1/2. Daytrading is not for everyone, but just watching the technical trading characteristics of these little stocks can only help in your other trading. Also MYL is a trade today, when it went right back to Friday’s support. So watching support and resistance, and becoming a “believer” in it can be very helpful for your longer term positions, and I have many longer term positions as you know.
I am learning slowly & there is lot to learn from you. I have a regular 9-5 desk job & cant really do much of day trade but yes, as you said even watching the stocks you have highlighted will be good for learning. Presently I just trade/daytrade Jnug/Nugt, since I am familiar with GDX.
That’s enough to do along with a full time job Jay. Don’t overload yourself. Just watch these stocks I talk about, and learn different approaches, between buying into the big reactions, which I’m pretty good at, to buying the breakouts, which I’m not real good at. But my partner is excellent at. And ALL of this is predicated on two things, and they work in tandem. 1 – risk control. Most people view risk control as stops, and it’s very important. But I have another layer which I concentrate on – taking profits, that is misunderstood for risk control. And 2 – the setup – EVERYTHING is in the setup – as my article this morning pointed out.
Thanks Scott for sharing what you like in this space, think your spot on, when one combines this concept with the inbound inflation coming, it doesn’t look good… especially for the large populations of people already on the brink. … seems like situations like this are likely to be Capitolized upon to justify “a new world order” as papa bush and others would put it. .. little order out of chaos. .. ab da Cao (sp?)…
And to think I voted for that idiot and his moron son too. My voting track record sucks.
Indigo Skyfold breaking news
http://themillenniumreport.com/2015/02/chemtrail-pilot-blows-the-lid-off-of-operation-indigo-skyfold/
I want to look at this after the markets. I may post it, even tho I’m still not sure what to make of this stuff.
Scott,
Do not blame yourself too much on your poor voting record. I am as guilty as you are. The establishment controls both parties. We are often to forced to choose one of the two trash cans. Whether you vote or not and whether you vote trash A or trash B, the essential results are the same. Rarely, we get a popular anti-establishment guy (such as Trump). We have seen how intense the establishments use dirty tricks to attack him. I am curious whether Trump would have won had the establishments and main stream media treated him fairly. Many people in the US feel that the county has been on wrong track for too long. They certain know who do not trust when Michelle Obama told them why make America great again because the US is already the greatest.
Speaking of inflation, Lawrie Williams recently wrote column on the intentionally understating actual inflation rate by governments around the world makes the PM and commodities cheaper that they currently appear. His point is that PM and commodities will head much higher once a lot of people figure out actual inflation rate is much higher (just like they do not believe in Michelle Obama that the US is greatest). Here is his column:
https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams-lies-damn-lies-fake-news-fake-views-and-gold_265282.html
Overall agreed, but I am very concerned now with a top in inflation in the interim. The euphoria about economies is right into the top.