The following recap is meant to be used in conjunction with this other post.
The theme I have kept repeating since March is the PMs would be stuck in a trading range until well into the second half of 2017. The GDX chart shown for this recap is for this time period from 8/14-8/18 (curve). The chart for the year is here. And the gold chart is here. A prior outlook is here.
8/14: This video discusses gold more in depth with the time frames and supp/res areas, and there’s another from earlier this morning with gold, the Yen bounce and the formations. So looking at this gold chart, and how to anticipate the trading range forming, by marking off the volatility area, and today as it’s trying to form a (short-term) tradeable bottom. This week is a time frame for a top or a big trading range pause. GDX – would like to see gaps filled on the downside, as it’s getting really compressed in here, and I don’t want to even recommend anything until it moves and gives some better parameters. Selling would be part of the process of clearing out weak hands.
8/15: A couple of things from yesterday about the miners – “ GDX – would like to see gaps filled on the downside, as it’s getting really compressed in here, and I don’t want to even recommend anything until it moves and gives some better parameters. Selling would be part of the process of clearing out weak hands.” Some of you are short the miners, and that’s working currently. I have no position in them (trading-basis), as my focus has been on plenty of other “movers”. But generally my outlook is the same for gold – this week is a time frame for a top/bigger trading range, gold needs a backup first before blasting thru 1295, and the backup will re-energize it, as it’s closing in on the trending move higher, and a bigger time frame (higher) bottom in…. Some of this is in yesterday’s video.
8/16: Please understand how to work with news. “Breaking support” on dumb news can often be a buy, the timing of it is important tho, so wait for a setup with EA(s) and retests. The Fed minutes (dumb news) are at 2 PM, and it can often move PMs and currencies. Gold, still same view, needs to break below support before I would be at all interested. The last time I bought gold, and talked about it then in the premarket, was at 1214 on July 7th. This setup here is not remotely as good. The miners also need to back up more for a really good setup.
8/17: In the meantime, markets are still in ranges, please understand how important that statement is. Here’s the list – gold, miners, Yen, $, SPY, and the list goes on. With gold overall my belief is the same as for weeks – bigger trading range pause/top, with then a push to new highs, after a backup within the range. And then a higher low…., and likely a powerful low, with the trending move getting close. The miners have been lagging, but I keep repeating that will change. But I almost never put on a position trade in the middle of the bigger trading range. As I’ve been hammering home the point now since 12/9/2015 about “gold is in a bull market”, there are a lot of waffling gold “bulls” who are now bullish, because “the trendlines have been broken, their crap theory of real yields suddenly isn’t bearish, rising interest rates suddenly aren’t bearish, miners lagging suddenly isn’t bearish, North Korea, QE, etc.” And today the $ is up and guess what – gold is up. Total uselessness.
8/18: Still same idea with gold, don’t need to rehash it and it’s on the video. What have I been saying since 12/9/2015 – it’s a BULL MARKET. And all of the gold bashers and doubters out there, with all of their highly paid services – now what are they going to say? An emotional blast thru 1300, is a place to lighten up for me. And the backups are for buying.
Leave a Reply