The old post referenced in the video, about 0% chance of a stock market crash is here. Since the generational secular low in the US, and many foreign, stock markets, the calls for a stock market crash have been a constant, incompetent chant – the “bubble” in stocks is going to cause a “disaster when it breaks”. These people won’t stop, but of course many of them have something to sell – and only gold will save us from the looming depression. Why are people listening to this crap? Markets go up and markets go down. What’s the big deal. Why does everything have to be a bubble and be about to crash in the current environment? Will the stock market have a big selloff? Yes, it’s totally normal within a major bull market. The stock market crash, yes crash, on October 19, 1987, was in the middle of a massive bull market. The stock market fell 35%, and you know what? It didn’t kill the major bull market. So how to “protect” against a “crash”. Markets are totally about risk, So be smart about taking profits, and we need to get out quickly when we’re wrong. It’s that “simple”. A 20% selloff would be an awesome opportunity, not a crash. The failed secondary rallies are what to watch for after the hard break(s).
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Nice.So can we all double down on the Naz and just
go play golf until the double top🏌🏼♀️
Or daytrading in the meantime. Of course there’s a huge difference between being long with a huge cushion, and chasing. And when people are totally complacent when we get all of the red bars, with volume – while, as you say, they’re at the country club, checking their i-phones to see “how much money they’ve made” that day. And we can start thinking parameters. The last solid low was February 2016, 95 on the QQQ. So 18 months and doubling, maybe then we’ll have something. Along with a nice vertical chart, and all of the daytrading TV commercials.
A) So the earliest way to spot a initial stage of a trend is to watch for multiple breaks of support and/or resistance?
B) got a question on a chart of mine.(highlighted area)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rtM6kaOB/
How does that flatness and increase in volume affects the probability of a long position?
Would more volatility increase even more the probabilities for a long position?If so why?
A) Really since it’s all connected, the first thing to watch for is the end of the previous trend, and then that will virtually always be a trading range, the end of one trend, transition process (preparation) and beginning of next. Even daytrading these types of things set up, and then we need to think in terms of “trading patterns” to recognize a trade entry opportunity. That video was really about RISK, and very big picture stuff. It was about how moronic it is for these people to keep calling for “crashes”, and being so incompetent that they don’t know “crashes” don’t start from nowhere. And the time to start “calling” for a “crash” is after the setup/EA/first big break. And besides, NO ONE has a crystal ball to know anything will “crash”. And just because something is a “bubble”, doesn’t mean it will “crash”. Total incompetence – pure emotion.
Excellent video Trader Scott! I really enjoyed it 😉
B) Just to keep the context, and the continuity – daily, 60, 5. Just take a look at the charts, and let me know your thoughts. Even super short term, the daily charts are a big help. We need all of the quality tools as possible. And so here what is the “trading pattern”? What is the definable trade? That’s where the probabilities really come from, because all of the action is then relative to the “pattern”.
Yes, more volatility could increase the probabilities. Why could, because it depends on what the volatility is. Meaning – remember the thing about where is the spike coming from – you can get bearish volatility also. But the acceleration from the low is very likely solid demand of some sort, so yes that would increase the probabilities. But you still need a definable setup. And what are the trade parameters. The range, resistance, whatever. The volatility means weak hands are selling, mainly strong/stronger hands are buying, even for a very short term trade. That’s where the volatility comes from – the weak hands selling with strong hands stepping up, and if you see it at support, then even better. But remember where you are, if it’s a retest of support, you want relatively less volume. And just be aware, we can also speak about the overall volatility of a stock, which is where the bigger profit potential will reside. And no, not necessarily the bigger loss potential. I can get into that more, but it’s why I want these stocks which are moving, or hopefully about to move, but the second one is a tougher thing to anticipate. That’s why so many people trade the movers, because they’re already moving.
Your comments are just as good as gold as the post are….. thanks Dog☺
Thanks dude. It’s my “mission” to get everyone to view markets in a totally unbiased way. And just think of all of the average Joes who have bought into the “crash” theory, and have been too scared to realize there all of the long side opportunities in equities for the last 8 years. That’s what ticks me off about the “crash-talking” promoters. They have sold their buy gold theories to people to save them from a “stock market crash”. We need to view markets with facts, not emotions.
Hello, my name is Wulf, I’m a recovering crash-aholic….. 📉📉📉📉🍺hooked on manipulation “blow”…
Many takeaways, thanks brod-hiem!
For a long term view is Renko handy for filtering out the noise?
Yes it can, but I use its cousin – point and figure charts. As with everything in markets, any tool “works” much better when used in conjunction with other tools. And the volume/price spread is so helpful. They do make an obvious statement where the important supp/res areas are. This old timer Howard I used to know years ago, liked his point and figure charts. He updated them on these little cards throughout the day. Howard was a real quiet methodical trader, mainly a tape reader. So he used his little point and figure cards as a real guide and watched the tape going into those box reversals. Bottom line, he was a great trader.