As most of my long term readers know, since 2016 I have been expecting a HUGE top in bond prices/bottom in yields – a top which would take many years to form, hence my advice was DO NOT try to short that top. I was too early in 2018 believing the top was set (believing yields were breaking out to the upside, it was a false upside bko) and thinking the downtrend in prices was here (look at chart #1 of bond YIELDS, at red arrow). Then the 100% COMPLETELY FAKE PANDEMIC came along in 2020 and bond yields plummeted again, again view chart #1 – and formed a TERMINAL SHAKEOUT, a very bearish indication (remember this is bond YIELDS so it looks “bullish” but the chart is the reverse of the PRICES).
We then finally put in our multi-decade low in yields in summer 2020. There will be a more detailed post later, but yes bond yields have soared since the lows in 2020 – no market moves in a straight line tho. And a very good low formed in bond prices/top in yields. Using the TLT for bond prices the chart #2 is below. And so what about the BRAINDEAD federal reserve who claims they are going to just whistle along and raise rates as high as they want – IT AIN”T GONNA HAPPEN and bonds (and the US $, chart #3) both know it – charts below with updated chart of TLT, #4.
How did I recognize that we were putting in a low in TLT, chart #2? First the whole thing is a SPRING setup – meaning that we were below the SUPPORT at 114, blue line. Second I waited for the indications (volume and price pointed out with arrows) to “tell me” that the big money was ACCUMULATING. The details and nuance are too complex to point out here, that would be a premium feature. But just to say that you have to be able to recognize these details in real time – AND – then put your money down in real time. Not easy -yet simple. And in chart #4 below you can see the upside results.
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