One important skill (a trading skill) for successful traders/investors is the ability to anticipate and thus act, as opposed to reacting (which is usually tied in with emotions, which is not a winning combination in markets). Learning how to anticipate was yet another skill which I was forced to learn to be able to survive markets. The skill of anticipation is really about confidence. Being able to anticipate when/where a market is turning (from down to up and from up to down) requires us to confidently step in to volatility when the emotion of the market (the public) is greatly heightened. So you must have a lot of confidence in your work, in your skills, and in your ability to anticipate.That ability comes from hard work, always being prepared, and then putting it into practice countless times in the crazy market environments. (And it’s those crazy market environments which are actually THE best opportunities.) And anticipation can also be about anticipating further advancements in a TREND, hence you are not looking for big turning points. Hence you are not attempting to “pick a top” or “pick a bottom”. Because you understand that the power of the overall trend is still in force.
So with this in mind, one of the reasons for doing this blog is to share what it is which I am anticipating for my own trades/investments. And even though I do at times talk about what/why something just happened in the market, aka “news” (looking in the rear view mirror), in general that is pretty useless conversation, except for true educational value.And you can find the rear view mirror stuff just about anywhere on the internet, however it generally provides little value. But being able to anticipate can have tremendous value. So, I have been constantly writing about the US$ shortages and also on my belief that the US$ is continuing, and will continue, to be in a bull market. In other words, why I am continuing to anticipate further gains in the Dollar and no major top for a while. I have been pointing out how currency after currency is going to multi-year and even multi-decade lows against the US$ and that I anticipate the situation to intensify. And here is another example – the Egyptian Pound.While the Egyptian currency is a very minor situation, when you keep adding these up, they become quite a powerful propellant to new highs in the Dollar.
Here is the US$ chart currently – shorter term and longer term.I have been recently writing about my anticipation for there to be an interim top for the US$ into both the resistance area (red arrow) and also the SUPPLY LINE /overbought line (green line). And so far we are seeing an interim top, which is taking pressure (short term) off of some other markets. But, it’s not until the Dollar gets to around 100.50 (red arrow longer term chart) before I would anticipate a bigger, but not final, top for the US$. So hopefully this type of “analysis” will be helpful for many readers to learn how to anticipate markets.
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