The following has been repeated over and over at this website about the stock market in relation to bonds. Stocks are in a secular bull, years left to run, bonds are in a secular bear, years left to run. The following was first discussed 9 months ago and repeated continually about how the BOND YIELD surge will end the years of low DAMPENED volatility which itself caused by LOW BOND YIELDS:
From 1/24:
“The volatility in assets will follow this year, for it is the low bond yields, especially for the last few years, which has greatly helped to dampen volatility.”
And repeated constantly about the one thing which is NOT noise to me, and getting thru 116.50 would FINALLY convince people of what I have been saying for 22 months – BONDS ARE IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET:
“To continue, back in May I repeated once again, that the “reason”, to me, for the stock selling early in the year was about the stock market beginning to get ACCLIMATED to the higher rates, everything else about the “reasons” for selloff was all noise. Also, even back then discussed how, to be able to break thru the FORMIDABLE areas, TLT would need to BOUNCE first:
From May:
“And again, there are plenty of reasons which the permabears can use to “support their case”, but a bull market does not end on bad news it ends on great news and lots of confidence and straight up bars on a chart. Also, to me this pause/reaccum in the uptrend is all about stocks getting acclimated to higher rates, everything else is noise.
Bonds, longer term bonds, are continuing to bounce off of yield res, but that resistance will give way later this year. TLT above 116.50, which is a huge supp area, are building the energy (redistribution) to blast thru that support and that supp break will really begin to convince people that a bear market is here in bonds. But you guys have known that for a long time, right?. And the 2 year yield is leading the way.”
So here we are, multi-multi-year highs across the bond yield curve, I have laid this out beautifully for everyone, who knows if people are listening to it and studying it since no comments. Not a problem, I have studied intensely the last secular bond bear, and generally understand what is going on. The world in 5 years will look vastly different than today. Very few humans, as adults, including me, have witnessed a bond bear market – 1940-1981 was the last one. The world is wildly complacent, the low/falling bond yields for 35+ years have INTOXICATED people via dampening volatility, allowing them to binge on debt for totally unproductive things and live their lives in relatively stable conditions. And so they can then get “triggered” because their lives are so darn good overall and they are 100% unappreciative of WHY THAT IS, and so again they can spend all their time on nothingness. The world is WASTED. So so many people presently are totally focused on, and protesting, the most moronic crap in the US. They won’t be protesting it in a few years, the bond yields will “solve” their problems, they won’t care anymore about their stupid self-made “problems”. Between global COOLING, crop failures, wars, huge govt debt problems, consistent inflation, rising taxes, and rising stock and commodity markets – I have tried to warn people about this, and have done my part.
A few days ago I laid out my view of the stock market with the 60 minute charts. Same view. During selloffs in the stock market, the thing to watch for is what sectors are showing the best xx. For instance xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
Hey Scott! I was just reviewing my notes of your trading comments, and I have a question on :
“spike low near the open in an uptrend or pre-bko”
Does the “near the open” comment apply to both “an uptrend” and “pre bko”?
My interpretation has been that the spike low near the open was meant just for an uptrend, and a spike low on a pre-bko doesn’t need to be near the open. Is that correct?
Yes it applies to both. That is one specific setup. The setup is specific to the time frame of the open/near the open. Then we have the intraday spike low setup, that is a separate setup. That one requires more to it. It is more based on the trading for that day also, plus and including the previous action. And to add, the pre-bko action is definitely harder to understand, so more experience is necessary. The uptrend is simpler to understand. Good question Dave.
Trader Scott,
Many of us read your posts but don’t comment due to our lack of not having anything of value to add.
We certainly appreciate your work and take heed of your longer period advice, such as with bonds.
It would be wonderful if you could provide an update on where you see things going over the next year or so with the dollar, stocks, miners, gold, oil, and the other commodities. Don’t worry, we won’t hold it against you if you don’t get it exactly correct on the timing. It is hard to get the longer term timings correct with all the market manipulations which occur. Back in Aug 2017 you felt that gold, miners, and stocks would move together in 2018 and beyond as money moved out of bonds. Do you still feel this way. Also, back in 2016 you had some projections as to when the dollar destruction would start in 2018, and that we would have 10+ % interest rates by 2020. Do you still see this? I’m not a trader so I try to take the crumbs which fall from your table to make adjustments to my positions. Again, we all really appreciate your work.
Ditto to Jeffreys comment. I am not a trader more looking for long term position trades.I am learning a ton from you. Thanks for everything Scott !