One of the perks of being a subscriber of The Entry Points premium content is that Trader Scott sends our members comments every morning about market directions, movements and stocks we are watching for set ups. We release these comments in an edited form afterwards from time to time to allow our visitors a little peak into our premarket information.
December 15, 2017
Unlike the super popular websites, we never try to pump up the hits here with marketing, scamming, and fear, We provide info to be able to take advantage of all of the amazing opportunities in markets. And we certainly don’t sit around theorizing and pontificating. As we keep talking about, these current times are extremely reminiscent to me of the 1995-March 10, 2000+ time period. For years, the hot-air “balloons” (useless talking heads) were calling for the internet-related stocks to crash. Eventually they did – eventually.
The main focus for most people looking back to then is the crash. But what about the years leading up to it, and all of the opportunities. I always, always ignore the hot-air balloons (useless talking heads), except for sentiment. Why anybody listens to and idolizes them is truly baffling. We’ve seen the ridiculous comments about BTC going to zero, yet these people are still as popular as ever. Amazing.
With AMZN, BABA, the stock market (gold down the road), for years the pontificators have been spectacularly wrong. The whole time I’ve been long OSTK, I’ve read numerous stories about how the stock (and BTC) are worthless, like this trash. Twice, I’ve already pulled some profits out of OSTK, and bought back into reactions. So while the genius who wrote the article is sitting on his rear and pontificating, I’ve been trading it, profiting, and think it has a good future. We’ll see. In other words, I’m trading (opportunity) – and giving strong uptrends “plenty of room“, there will be a post about that soon.
That time 20 years ago is when I began learning to try to stay away from hyperbole, and just stick to tools – and trade. For people who constantly worry about crashes, do they understand about using some kind of exit strategy – and stay optimistic. Risk control. There will be big, very big, huge selloffs. BTC itself going to zero? It is not remotely my view. Other individual cryptos, absolutely, same as the 1990s.
And like then, when companies (even legitimate ones) knew how to pump up their stock with .com or “net” stuff. Now it’s blockchain, crypto stuff. SIEB is the latest one.
Gold is back into resistance, but the break below 1260 has lengthened (and strengthened) the potential with the next rally. Discussed in the December 2015 post about PMs, my belief then (and still) that was the secular bottom (investing), and I have my long-term positions in miners, and as discussed recently, now is more about position trading opportunities. And discussed in the comments section a few weeks ago, I’m still sticking with, holding (and trading) Novo, and is my main focus. There have been discussions about inventory, and viewing things that way may be helpful. From yesterday about miners going forward – “Short answer, yes, buying into reactions. And either holding, or buying some and sell into rallies, but hold some in inventory. That is what I’m doing with Novo. Going below 1260 gold sets up (allows) a bigger time-frame situation, than just pure trading position, which is how I had been treating gold for a while.”
But again with gold, I first talked about this last year, all of us long gold, this what we are dealing with is what a market does in accumulation. Please understand that. And realize what that means for down the road.
December 14, 2017
There’s a new trading video here about drone maker DRNG, with SOSes, using end of day absorption, and finding stocks not on people’s radars, like MSRT recently. And again. everything I do in markets is from my early days of in and out trading. End of day absorption (EODA) is something I discovered while working extremely hard as a floor trader, and trying to find “edges”. EODA can be used in several ways, and in all time frames. I sometimes use trade setups in “contrarian” ways. I use EODA at times to keep me in a trade, if I’m still long into the closing time zone, instead of selling. Or even to avoid shorting a market late in the day, even tho it may be into a resistance area.
This was the “gist” of my comment about gold after the Fed, left at yesterday’s comments section – Gold had the initial pop thru 1252, and a $8 reaction, and then the next spike up. As I was discussing this morning, I was waiting to buy that original reaction, just didn’t setup well for me. Really wanted to see more selling to up my confidence level, because the area is setting up. I still want to see the spike thru here, and another push lower. We’ll see. So now it’s that next reaction for me, like back into the original support area 1243. (With gold) I always like to buy into new lows/springs or retests, close to the low. In early July (when I bought into the new low) that was the setup after the jobs #. So I’ll wait. All of this accumulation on the bigger-picture is adding up to a huge point count. I hesitate to even talk about it. Also, this whole thing will be a spring of 1260, which then builds that confidence level.
You know how I always discuss what keeps me focused, amid all of the hot air about markets flying all over the place. I believe in my work, and have been adamant about gold being in accumulation since 2014 when it was discussed in August. Back then I believed the bottom was yet to come (the downside of the accum area). And on December 9, 2015 was the post (nine days from the low in a 51 month bear market), about my belief it was finally time to buy gold on a secular low basis. And this whole time since, my belief remains we are in accumulation and reaccumulation of the whole area. But trading is trading, and investing is investing. There are times for each. My rock, long-term, is the March 1980-Dec 2005 accum, and the one now.
One of the main reasons I do position trading is a pure mental exercise, and a different personal satisfaction than daytrading. It’s just different, better and worse, but different. Discovering, well ahead of “everyone” the concepts, themes, sectors, turning points, opportunities. Like with green tech last year, gold in December 2015, or the blockchain equities, with MGTI initially in May. or small robotics earlier this year. Patrick Byrne of OSTK is doing some unique things with blockchain and retailing. I’ve been thru some swings in this stock, lots of opportunities for you guys to get long, but I’ve held on and added to the position. I discussed this initially on 10/25, and the original trading video, since I was already bullish on the retailing group and blockchain – “OSTK interesting, another retailer, and with a crypto angle“. And OSTK has been discussed, I checked, over 40 times since then, with the “huge accumulation area and the SOSes”.
December 13, 2017
There is a post here about my involvement, somehow, in a Buzzfeed article regarding TWTR. It’s a long read, but interesting. As one of you pointed out so well, keep the random, unresearched and emotional beliefs, theories and concepts out of all of this. From yesterday –
There are posts here and here with the general theme of, keep the emotions, hyperbole, predictions out of markets. We all succumb to these human traits at times, thru experience I know it’s never been helpful to me, nor anyone I’ve known. Use your tools, and go with what they and the market/stock itself is “telling you” at the time. If that changes, then fix it and/or adjust the view of the situation.
But certainly, for me, the accumulation, the trend, and the strength, of the big picture view is what helps to keep me on track. Plus studying history and big cycles. And understanding what time-frame any particular trade or setup it is you’re viewing. Then you make assumptions going forward based upon that.
This business to me is pure statistics, like success in blackjack. Probabilities, risk, the series (not one meaningless trade, “The Big Short”), win/loss ratio, profit/loss ratio. So the trade setups, the time-frames, the entries, and the exits. Everything else is noise.
Today is Fed day, meaningless in the big-picture, meaningful short-term. The Yen pair is setting up an area, breaking below support, and another surge thru to new highs could set up an upthrust. Gold is setting up an area, with weak handed buying at 1252 as resistance, and breaking thru 1243 to take out some weak hands. And setting up support below 1236 on the spike. What I’m watching is a few things. My “preferred” is a blast thru 1252 (I want to see the 1252+ hit again) and then another push lower. I really want to see volatility. And start averaging into another new low, or on a retest. A rally blasting thru 1252, as a big SOS is another. And buying a retest in a bit. Just more volatility.
December 12, 2017
There are posts here and here with the general theme of, keep the emotions, hyperbole, predictions out of markets. We all succumb to these human traits at times, thru experience I know it’s never been helpful to me, nor anyone I’ve known. Use your tools, and go with what they and the market/stock itself is “telling you” at the time. If that changes, then fix it and/or adjust the view of the situation.
But certainly, for me, the accumulation, the trend, and the strength, of the big picture view is what helps to keep me on track. Plus studying history and big cycles. And understanding what time-frame any particular trade or setup it is you’re viewing. Then you make assumptions going forward based upon that. Like with the stock market once again, and the 2001-2011 accumulation, the March 2009 terminal shakeout, and studying the big cycles (1932-1972ish and 1974-2000). The upside ending action, I assume, will morph into reaccumulation. Occasionally they’ll get out of hand, but those are buying opportunities, and keep the time-frames in mind. Those tools are the solid foundation to assume that. Also, super helpful directly related to trading, if you become unsure – then cut back position sizing and time-frames. There are people who do very well by literally viewing markets as, “they are always unsure”. And they trade small, short-term, and feel very comfortable doing that. It’s very understandable why.
So with BTC, all of the hyperbole, emotion, predicting. But itself is just another market, it’s had a huge run, so cut back on things. Blockchain plus cryptocurrencies (the technology) themselves, are sort of like the internet itself in the 90s. And the stocks of today’s environment related to that idea. So again, we’ve been trying to get you guys to instead of hyperbole, focus on trading/position trading into the big selloffs with OSTK (long), XNET, RIOT, SQ, MARA, DPW, SSC, SRAX, GLNNF (long again), MGTI or maybe for some the GBTC trust. Even the Davos globalists will be talking cryptos this year.
These “stopping action” areas in gold are areas where the reaccumulation is going on in the bigger picture. So then shorter-term they’re bounces, setting up the next rally, similar to late 2013, 14, 15, 16 – unwinding and strong hand repositioning. That whole area 1260-1300, I was trading shorter-term, and increasingly very short-term, in and out. The break below 1260 will allow for more position-type trade, I need the setting up.
December 11, 2017
Secondary rallies (here is a video about this discussion) are an excellent analysis tool, and they are also a specific type of trade setup to be looking for – springs also. As talked about before, I knew guys on the trading floor at CBOE who did very well by doing the “contrary” trade setup of looking to short into the automatic rally after the preliminary support in a downtrend. The PS marks a bullish event shorter-term, and has meaning down the road. But that PS low will almost always be retested, and a new low will be set – meaning by waiting for the rally to take place, that specific trade is a very high probability event. Markets are all about probabilities and risk (it’s hard to tell one from another actually).
Likewise, you can do very well in markets by doing the other trade – buying into the automatic reaction after the preliminary supply in a rally. PSY is the first EA in a rally. If the market/stock is very strong, that trade setup is extremely high probability. A “123 reaction after the buying climax” is a specific version of it. And retests of the initial secondary rally low bar are another version of it – one minute to weekly charts. Also, in a strong uptrend, that specific situation can be used as an analysis tool to see (assume) that on a bigger time-frame, the PSY and secondary rally stuff will be part of “distribution morphing into reaccumulation”. So once again, this is how daytrading in my early days allowed me to begin to learn (struggle) all different kinds of trade setups to implement into various time frames.
Some recent examples, and I’ll explain more in another post – well ahead of time, in the chart in Friday’s premarket, I drew in the support area I was looking for in BTC. (And also the DPW one.) I have BTC accounts setup, and as I told Stevie on Saturday, missed that trade, doing other stuff, but the trade was there certainly – here is the result and now. So for all of the useless emotion and angst about BTC by way too many people – there was a beautiful specific trade setup, +20% and back into resistance. Meaning trade a strong market from the long-side, take some profits (maybe). And why do people freak out about this market, just use stops.
Gold is trading in the range, more stopping action (SA has been discussed) to me, not EA. SA means bounces. There was a huge change in the COT numbers and they’ll keep looking better. Two weeks ago, I talked about how the “break below 1260 would get pretty rough” – long liquidation of the rally from the early July low into the push thru 1300. I started selling some of that early July gold purchase (talked about in that premarket) way too early at right above 1300 as it then kept going to 1357. I’m now looking for the next quality buy area to setup. Volatility will help the setup. On the chart, you can see the weak handed buying into the mini BC. Why do people constantly do this with gold. I see that stuff, and I know that they have to be washed back out. Also, notice where that high area is. It is the high bar before the last bit of the liquidation. So now we are setting up the areas.
The QQQ has the support areas set up for springs, potential short-term call option stuff. That big volume is still bugging me. It’s trying to get worked off, as the relative volumes are falling since. Look at the previous reaccumulation areas this year, and notice what happened to the relative volumes.
Leave a Reply