One of the perks of being a subscriber of The Entry Points premium content is that Trader Scott sends our members comments every morning about market directions, movements and stocks we are watching for set ups. We release these comments in an edited form afterwards from time to time to allow our visitors a little peak into our premarket information.
November 6:
For all of the people who think fancy systems, and complex (rear-view mirror tested” methods, and ultra-fast computers, and 10 monitors, and brilliant Gurus are the path to great things in this business, I couldn’t disagree more. But those are the things which most people chase after. I have complete belief that I can do very well in markets with a ten year old computer and one dinky CRT monitor – complete faith. To restate, this business is completely about hard work, consistency, mental toughness, a winning attitude, and 100% belief in one’s work. Is that work going to be right all the time, no, not even close. And that’s where the rest of it comes in. Just being prepared every single day blows away all of the fanciness. And how does all of this fit into the big markets.
The Yen (USDJPY) finally upthrusted that big resistance area I kept talking about, along with the rest of the “analysis” – “that big resistance area in the USDJPY” and how it is “not helping gold” and we are ” likely to have an upthrust thru that big resistance”. That resistance area constantly referred to was laid out – way back in September::
“For years I’ve believed the stock market is headed way higher, as is gold. The selloffs are for buying. As for gold intermediate-term, still believe there is a low coming up in about/less than 2 weeks. The shorter-term view is the same as from recent comments with the SC in the miners. And we talked about the Yen (pair) volatility, with the possibility with a push back to recent support, and then another push to higher highs within a bigger top in the USDJPY. A top will help gold.”
And again on 10/31:
“I kept talking about that big resistance area in the USDJPY, and how the rally into it was hurting gold. The pair finally hit up against it and the reaction back down helped gold. I do expect an upthrust in the pair thru there. In the meantime. the resistance area in gold, to exit my NUGT trade, is 1284. My stop in NUGT is at scratch, 28.48.”
I don’t trade the big markets as much as before, but I know a lot of you do. We are laying out really good opportunities for you guys, like with TLT a few weeks ago – 10/23. It’s rallied 4 points from “below 122.50”:
“And why are they both headed wildly higher? The bond market bear. But there could be some tradeable rallies. I traded the December 2016 rally in bonds. Currently, if we take out 122.5 on TLT, I will cover short positions, puts, and it could then set up a pretty good rally.”
I don’t make predictions on markets as conventionally understood, but I do “predict” excellent entry points. And then set stops (mental) and/or take profits at some point. The Yen trade has worked very well, so far, plenty of room to take profits or move trailing stops. Is this business easy? Not even close.
If you guys are doing these trades, please let me know.
Stocks – DCIX was an outstanding trader for me on Friday, as discussed in the intraday video. We have discussed the shippers over and over, and the “formation of a long-term bottom” and the “Baltic Dry Index”. We brought it up again on Friday. And again today the shippers are all moving as a group – GLBS, TOPS, DRYS, SHIP, RLOG. We’re watching them.
My AMD spring (I believe) trade is finally kicking in today, long at 11.44, with INTC news. As discussed before, INTC itself is in a powerful uptrend and huge accumulation area.
I’m long NUGT from Friday, with a mental stop, in Friday’s video.
It is a stock market bull, and the reactions in strong stocks are the opportunities. So it’s the stocks in accum. or in the new uptrends – why bother with anything else? That is the point with my positions – IMMU, OSTK, GRPN, MZOR, DVAX, INSM, HALO, APTI, others. But look at those stocks – they are actually very similar. We’re working on categorizing all of the stocks we’re long and/or interested in. IMGN, no position, but outstanding spring (premarket trading) on Friday. Watching TXMD and XXII.
November 7:
The discussions about this business being mainly hard work, consistency and preparation, certainly isn’t exciting. But that’s also part of the point. It turns out the excitement shouldn’t be about the markets, but about having the opportunity to build a trading account over time – “working hard and grinding it out”. Wish I would have understood this years ago, it would have allowed me to focus on what is truly important. And focusing on what is truly productive work is the key. I have been over the things which constitute my overall work focus, and each individual person has to develop heir own. Ponder it, write it down, and begin implementing it, and work with it and adapt it, hone it over time. I do not care what anyone else thinks about markets, even buddies who have proven themselves over years. It’s a very empowering feeling, of course the performance has to justify/confirm that belief
The stock market permabear websites have been, and will continue to be, wrong about stocks for nine years running. Every permabull gold website is all in on the stock market crash theory, such a shame people believe this crap. If only they would have taken the time to understand accumulation. And these sites have constantly come up with a newfangled theory why the stock market is a bubble ( just remember hearing this here, it will be the claims about gold also down the road). It isn’t a bubble, not even close, and even if I believe their incompetent claims, so what. Bubbles can, and always do, go on for years. Bubble or not, RISK CONTROL is 100% of the time the most important part of this. That approach, over time, works in all markets. Don’t go all in, more speculative situations cut way back on position sizing, know which setups are much shorter-term time-frame focused as opposed to position trading, buy into reactions, buy into potential spring situations, be aware of secondary rally failures, understand distribution, etc.
With all of this, back in May we started talking about the “long-term bottom, accumulation-focus” in retailers and small energy producers. That has worked out very well. While folks were focused on non-issues like OPEC (except a contrary view), or with retailers freaking out about Amazon, these groups had been hit hard and were givings off signs. And crude is at multi-year highs – remember accumulation?
And in July we talked about the “change of character in DRYS”, and in September the “huge accumulation in the Baltic Dry Index” and the “long-term bottom in the shippers”. What were the permabear websites focused on (and still are) at the exact same time we were saying these words? Do you see my point about focus?
The shippers, yesterday’s video, will continue to be on our watch list today, and the bigger reactions, and there certainly will be, are for longer-term positions, accumulation. We gave the list yesterday, my partner has positions in shippers, I don’t currently. Also watching CREE, MYO, XOMA.
November 8:
Context is 100% a part of what I do with charts. When I bought gold as an investment in December 2015, I was using monthly and 1 minute charts. When I bought MYO as a daytrade, talked about in premarket yesterday and in this video, I was using 1 minute and daily charts. With my recent short-term trading in the shippers, TOPS and DRYS and DCIX, I was using daily, 60 and 1. I don’t know any other way to do this business – context. It’s why I don’t understand why daytraders ignore investing fundamentals, and investors ignore daytrading fundamentals – context. All of the trends, accumulations, etc. work in conjunction with each other. With the shippers, in the afternoon RLOG was the one to me which still had a momentum up structure to it. But the problem for me as I told my partner yesterday afternoon was the big break in DCIX and DRYS just sitting – the probability structure and some EA adding up on 60 minute charts. I’m stepping back, let’s see about reactions. And keeping it all in context of a bigger bottom, and how the stocks close relative to their resistance areas on daily charts.
I was hoping to hear that one of you, for those who don’t watch the small stocks and mainly do big markets, did the TLT trade, which was clearly laid out a few weeks ago (like was the opportunity with the “likely upthrust in the Yen pair“), with the “break below 122.50”. The TLT was a premarket spring, the Yen was an upthrust, and I talked about the setups well in advance, and covered an excellent put trade into “below 122.50” on TLT. The big markets these days are not my focus, with only the very best setups worth my time.
As far as currencies, I’m not trading the Euro, but pondering this support area and building a rally setup in here. Long NUGT, looking to sell into a rally.
No setups today like MYO yesterday – two solid SOSes, but watching ONCS with drug trial news, and an interesting structure. Most stocks moving today have very ugly charts – DGLY, DRIO, MBI, IZEA with a big resistance area to deal with.
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