Hopefully you have been taking notes on my comments, spot on how things will set up – WAY WAY AHEAD OF TIME:
From a few weeks ago, anticipating the stock market bottom beautifully:
Sort of intermediate-term, the way this bigger area sets up to me in SPY is we have got to have a big rally out of here, up to the 281 big bko area, and then another big selloff, maybe another spike lower low spring, then we should have set up a lot more stocks in the meantime.
From Nov. 30, exactly how it ended up playing out:
More quality setups, and more bkos working better. As discussed ahead of time a few weeks ago – there will be more retesting of the lows, possibly a spring, which we then did see in the QQQ. So all of this puts a better area below the market – base. Solidness.
From Nov 26:
“For several years I have been bearish on of course bonds, LQD, JNK, plus DB, CS, plus GS, C, BAC, MS. They held longer than I thought they would, but I always believe in my work, ALWAYS. When I identify a TREND, (know your timeframes of that trend) then my belief in and respect for it, and am stubborn as heck about that. It serves me very very well – on net. People who want to bounce around guess jump from one thing to another will NEVER make it.”
Do you think I just come up with stuff to write about out of the blue, and jump around from one thing to another as 90% of the people do? I stick to what I know and do trades based on setups I know. PERIOD – and work, work, work, observe, observe, follow, follow, watch the technical action develop, develop scenarios watch for confirmations – when I believe that I understand the action, watch for the beginnings of setups, watch those setups develop, continue to watch the action and confirming behavior – wait for my trigger.
AVOID THE LEFT SIDE:
And I stick to the RIGHT SIDE, NOT THE LEFT SIDE, OF THE MOVE. So a bottom?, I’m looking to enter on what I believe is the right side, same with a top?. I want to be in sync with the FRONT SIDE of a move. AVOID THE LEFT SIDE.
Again this business is pure hard work and consistency. Markets, tops, bottoms, accum reacc, distr, redist, trends, trading ranges – IT IS A PROCESS, hence OUR WORK needs to be a PROCESS. The vast majority of people show up only occasionally and can not figure out what the problem is – they will never succeed. Are you working hard at this, and with consistency? We all make our choices.
So here is the process. Are you constantly consistently reviewing the quality competent work laid out to you every week? I’ve been around this business a long time. In my early days the really good traders seemed to have some great talent, high IQs, some magical system. WRONG. Pure hard work, consistency, and the years of that then becoming – EXPERIENCE. I’ve seen so much disgusting sloth over the years. No matter how many times I have repeated this over the last few years, happy to see the ones who have listened, but it has sunk in with a disappointing number of people. I have tried.
So again, with discussion of the shorter-term, the performance in after-Thanksgiving and December for this type of year are again repeated, and updated the charts. The next leg of the bull, FAANGs will trade with the market returns, no longer way ahead, as stated multiple times – fads in markets are always replaced by something new – and theories in markets – ALWAYS WRONG – ALWAYS. What did I say about BTC last December:
“..aware of the huge runs, big EA areas, and the total arrogance of the BTC permabulls. Every time there’s a huge run in a market, there are always rearview mirror theories made up about the “price action”. And the “confirmation” with the “price action” gets the permabulls to enlist the new permabulls to their ranks. And they get very arrogant, and downright nasty, to anyone who would dare to disagree with their theories. Well gosh, why not. I mean look at the price action. Like 2011 with PMs or the last few years in bonds.”
The QQQ, thanks to FAANGs and newer software stocks, would be much lower, old tech – COMIs, plus telecoms are holding up the index. I was very early to begin posting telecoms, the sector is doing beautifully – they have become leaders. Also restaurants, big medical and medical equipment. I continue to believe those cloud stocks and the “edge” technology have outstanding potential. The stocks which lead the market in the “corrections” become the great performers out of that correction. I am trading very little these days, mostly options, no trades Friday – but do you think I am not working just as hard tho?
Again repeated on November 28 what I have said over and over and over – the probability data for an AFTER-THANKSGIVING RALLY and went thru the bullish technical situation forming on the charts – ALL OF THIS WAY AHEAD OF TIME:
Again below:
There should be a rally attempt into mid-December, possibly coinciding with a very interesting Fed meeting. Stats from Bespoke already given to you beginning of the week, a bullish period:
“On a day to day basis, for both all years since WWII and in years where the S&P 500 was up less than 5% heading into Thanksgiving week, Monday has been the worst trading day as it is the only day of the week with negative average returns and positive returns less than half of the time. Tuesdays and Friday (73%), however, have been positive days, though, with average gains of 0.10% and 0.29%, respectively. Additionally, for those years where the S&P 500 was up YTD but up less than 5%, Tuesdays and Fridays have been even stronger with average gains of 0.26% and 0.35%, respectively.”
Also, historically December is the best month of the year especially with “corrections” in October, and then historically late November on is another good period. As for this year as we stand – “as we move past Thanksgiving, though, seasonal trends for the market based on this year’s performance so far improve. In those years where the S&P 500 was up less than 5% YTD heading into Thanksgiving week, the average gains the week after Thanksgiving was 0.41% with positive returns 55% of the time. For the remainder of the year, average returns were even stronger at +2.83%. Not bad for a period of just over five weeks!”
The big LHBLs shown again, the abating weekly volume not as concerning. Also, with red volume, not always bearish, green not always bullish. So again to repeat – the concentrated compressed red volumes, that is much more likely to be bullish.
From a couple weeks ago:
Sort of intermediate-term, the way this bigger area sets up to me in SPY is we have got to have a big rally out of here, up to the 281 big bko area, and then another big selloff, maybe another spike lower low spring, then we should have set up a lot more stocks in the meantime.
So bit bigger picture, plus near term, we have the total bickering fighting investigating power grabbing for the next 2 years and beyond actually with the new crop of clowns into the Congress, that setting the stage for consistent volatility in markets, along with the higher yields, tariffs, and then oil getting clobbered. A traders stock market. None of this will kill the secular bull, I discussed a lot of this stuff over the years, have expected the general tone and trend of where we are headed, was aware of these types of things when I did this post many years ago as to my extreme bullishness for the long-term stock market. That belief takes into account a USD losing at least “unofficial” reserve status.
And for the incompetent permabears, here is what they should be worried about – JNK CS DB.”
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