Risk Reward – AND Probabilities – 80% Trade Setup

Very few traders will ever grasp what trading itself is 100% about, or even be aware of it. Do you know what it is? And the result being, they will go NOWHERE with their trading. These folks are clueless about – PROBABILITIES?, and risk actually, after all these years trading it is hard to tell the difference between them after a while. They overlap big-time. And how you deal with these probabilities is with – trade setups. I have been extremely generous sharing my trade setups over the last few years. Yet as much detail I have put into these explanations, it’s obvious only a small minority of people have done any kind of hard work into the MOST IMPORTANT PART OF TRADING. Again reinforcing to me, seen it over and over, most people who think they want to trade – do not work hard. Simple. What is wrong with these people. Being a contrarian is constantly spouted by a lot of the incompetents as to how to “succeed” at investing. Total crap. People who really want to be contrarian – just work very hard. You’ll be doing something 90% of traders will never do.

So here is another trade setup that I have been working on for a long time – “the intraday halt setup”. It is 80% probability. An outstanding setup. How do setups come about? Observation. Seeing patterns. Seem to keep showing up. I am not going to share all the nuance with this setup, if you’re interested, you’ll do the work required. If you are not at least interested in looking into an 80% probability setup, hard to understand why you are even trading.

I love the strongest of the strong stocks. ANY was the #1 stock of the day, however that says ZERO about my abilities, pure scanner stock, and it only means the top 3 stocks of the day have the most trending movement potential. I have been doing very little stock trading recently – no runners. ANY was a nice change. I watched it all day, kept following the TECHNICAL SITUATION. But could not identify a setup. And until it broke out, can be seen on chart #4 , I did nothing. When it broke out, excellent green volume bars, then I switched to bko setup mode. And then the halt showed up at 3:03 PM, does not show up on that chart, look at your intraday charts to view. The close at the halt was 4.97. Once I saw the halt I knew which setup to look for. And it has to do with the low of the first red bar after the re-opening after the intraday halt. The time of day factors into this specific setup, as does the angling up, and viewing/considering that it could be a “good close” stock – very few of those recently. Tho factoring into this, with the weak indexes, a low probability a good close stock would actually lead to a big ah rally. I was totally wrong about that with ANY, and I sold it way too early, but was looking to get in and out, discussed next.

So I saw the halt, knew the specific setup, looked to see where my stop would need to be in relation to where I need to put in my order. Then figured out my parameters, 10%, that looked fine. Chart #1, put in my bid at 4.74. Waited. Not sure it would trade back down.

Chart #2, ANY traded back down, traded thru my bid, got filled, immediately put in the 4.28 stop. In this specific tech situation, that big red volume was bullish, to me, very nuanced, did not bother me at all, part of this specific pattern. I HAVE DONE MY WORK ON THIS.

ANY traded up and down for about 30 minutes. Had no idea if it would work, 20% probability it would not work. It did turn back up, look at the volume when it did. I was not going to hold this overnight, so I sold 1/2 back into the high, moved stop to scratch, barely entered that and it went to new highs then sold the rest, and way too early as it went to 6.80 in ah trading. This setup is very good.