As I said 6 months ago, if you do not understand how to TRADE – AND are not willing to put in the time to learn, then you are screwed – the volatility in markets will only keep expanding. This post should be MUST BE used in conjunction with my previous update post here, I laid it all out there, and have been providing the daily update details to clients. There is plenty of discussion on the charts for you.
Thoughts:
I’m running out of quality long side setups and leaning short, long some puts (discussed on charts), credit spreads are widening, the yield curve is inverting, the “best employment #s ever” are a LAGGING stat, over ONE YEAR AHEAD OF TIME several of my posts discussed that the Fed would go on PAUSE when the 2 year yield hit 3% it was outstanding recognition as no one else was thinking that at the time I wrote it, we are headed into basically a civil war, the liberals are insane and are ANTI-US CITIZEN, I’m a US citizen and love my country, the economy is rapidly weakening, the Fed is CLUELESS and FOLLOWS the market does NOT lead we are on the verge of that understanding going mainstream, I voted for President Trump plan on doing that again but he has way overplayed his hand on the economy big mistake, the Republicans are in a fantasy world about the “best economy ever”, the $ is putting in a huge top BUT it’s a multi-year formation there will be more rallying after a small selloff this spring/summer, we got back into that big res area in stock indexes which I warned about the specific # months ago, the stock market is in a secular bull but a wide trading range, the FAANGs are done (as stated well before the Sept high) and upthrusts will mark their LOWER highs, the new leaders (cloud stocks, as I 100% correctly forecast last Fall) are not big enough overall to lead/power the market yet, they are in powerful uptrends, the FIRST leaders are the ones which have the biggest moves when the market breaks out, the IWM kept/keeps going to lower highs, WAY BACK on 2/27 I started warning about the LAGGING in the IWM very early to recognize that, people have piled into the FORMER leaders dumb dumb, there should be a minor bottom this week, the big LOVED stocks are a mess in downtrends (listed on the charts), waited for AFTER the Fed to start shorting (discussed on QQQ chart) will see if IWM can change character…
My answer to a bond Q:
A: OK. A) I’m not trading bonds, ONLY STOCKS, B) I bought stock index puts this week, covered some into close FRIDAY, I’m writing a post about stock market, and C) I do not think it’s an upthrust in bonds, it’s a bko. I warned people in the Fall that the Fed would pause, the economy was weakening, we are headed into a recession, stay away from shorting bonds, let them rally. Also, what have I been constantly telling you now for weeks – the IWM lagging is a very big problem, but that would not stop the SPY and QQQ from going to new highs, exactly like what happened in Aug/Sept, and 20 minutes after the Fed meeting I sent you that message –
“And now of course, the market experts are bullish because the Fed is holding off on raising rates, so why has the IWM lagged for 23 days, is lagging while spy/qqq went above res, is below supp, was setting new lows today. So now the next thing will be, the market will say, we need to start worrying about the economy.”
Charts no particular order, I’m not spending the time to organize it, I’ll leave it up to you if you really want to move yourself forward. You’ll need to update the charts yourself, use my work to your advantage:
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