I have no trading position in the general stock market (SPY), nor an investment position. The complacency in all markets currently is very concerning. That will change. Markets move between complacency and apathy. And also between greed and fear. These two changes in phases often overlap, but not necessarily. From a timing perspective, complacency and apathy are of little help. But they are of help from a RISK control perspective. They can give you, when combined with other timing tools, more confidence that you are doing the “right” thing by either entering an initial position in a market, or alternatively by staying out of a market. However, the phases of greed and fear can be very helpful timing-wise, but quite tricky to work with in the real world.
The general stock market is very worrisome. In late 2014, I began worrying about a major top beginning to show up, with a likely time frame in the summer of 2015. I first commented about it here, in January 2015. And I began completely exiting a big long position in the stock market in late summer 2015. After that, my comments about the stock market pertained to my trading positions only, both short and long – here, here, here, here.
In the charts below, shorter term and a bit longer term views are shown. Right now it’s just a waiting game for me – waiting for the “ideal” entry points. My main focus is looking to enter a longer term trade on the short side, IF the market trades into/above the RESISTANCE areas drawn in. Any long side trades would be short term only. As far as the stock market as an INVESTMENT. I don’t care if the Dow goes to 28,500. It’s a virtual certainty that it will do that without me along for the ride. I don’t care about missing/not being in a market move. I only care about not losing.
About
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day. Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
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