The title of this post is from this Zero Hedge article. It discusses the “Big Short. But beware of this concept, virtually no one succeeds at it.
Here is my view of markets. About 90% of my focus in markets is on identifying/acting upon the lowest RISK/highest PROBABILITY entry points. Very little of my focus is on the POTENTIAL/NEVER CERTAIN outcome. We have zero control over the POTENTIAL outcome. We have 100% control over the entry point. So then isn’t it rational to spend the majority of our time/focus on that fantastic entry point?
If I somehow manage to “hit” a Big Short or a Big Long, it’s almost purely luck. And yes luck plays a big part in market success. However, we make our own luck through our preparation/planning/anticipating/acting (not reacting). And also be aware of the difference in potential between the two Big Hits. A Big Long has a potential return of many, many times. While a Big Short has a potential (unleveraged) return of “only” 100%.
But the one line from the article that I agree with the most is: “The only big short out there is when the world loses confidence in QE.” However, I would restate as: “The massive DISTRIBUTION/topping process in the confidence in globalism, governments, central banks and therefore in the world’s government bond markets is the biggest danger on this planet.”
About
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day. Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
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