The Bitcoin “Crash”, What A Waste of Time

More on this later, but do you want to make money in markets, or do you want to keep flailing around and listening to totally incompetent people?

With all of the completely useless hyperbole surrounding Bitcoin, both myself and my partner are trading the crypto space, via BTC itself and/or the crypto stocks. Unlike most of the popular (and incompetent) idolized gurus all over the place, I totally respect the trend of the market. And since the high on 12/17, I have repeatedly stated that my approach to what is going on in BTC is overall reaccumulation. Meaning I’m looking to buy into weakness (springs), and we certainly saw that on 1/17. And this is what I said ahead of time on 1/17:

“As to BTC, and all of them, they are continuing the selloff. I have a video coming, but for now, yesterday I scratched a BTC buy, and another one, and am looking to enter again.

And I’ve put in some low bids on a few of those crypto stocks, like MGTI.”

So while virtually everyone was scared, emotional, flailing, I viewed it as an opportunity. I bought BTC into the magnificent spring on 1/17, and have taken partial profits of 25%. I am accumulating BTC and the stocks. And BTC as of now is back into a resistance area I drew in several days ago (chart below).

The low on 1/17 was 9200. And why was I so interested in BTC “below 9500“? Back on 12/22/17, I made it very clear and precise, to anyone who read it, where I would get interested in BTC:

“A lot of volatility, “give it plenty of room”, but gosh the BTC bulls are getting confident, stubborn, and arrogant actually. The price action is “confirming” their theories.

I’m trying to work out how reliable the volume is with BTC, and those exchanges, but another support area to watch – secondary rally/spring failure areas and shorter-term spring areas. That list of crypo stocks for short-term trade opportunities today, but being aware of the time-frame and some upthrusting and some wild speculation in these names.

Secondary rallies (here is a video about this discussion) are an excellent analysis tool, and they are also a specific type of trade setup to be looking for – springs also. As talked about before, I knew guys on the trading floor at CBOE who did very well by doing the “contrary” trade setup of looking to short into the automatic rally after the preliminary support in a downtrend. The PS marks a bullish event shorter-term, and has meaning down the road. But that PS low will almost always be retested, and a new low will be set – meaning by waiting for the rally to take place, that specific trade is a very high probability event. Markets are all about probabilities and risk (it’s hard to tell one from another actually).

That time 20 years ago is when I began learning to try to stay away from hyperbole, and just stick to tools – and trade. For people who constantly worry about crashes, do they understand about using some kind of exit strategy – and stay optimistic. Risk control. There will be big, very big, huge selloffs. BTC itself going to zero? It is not remotely my view. Other individual cryptos, absolutely, same as the 1990s.

And like then, when companies (even legitimate ones) knew how to pump up their stock with .com or “net” stuff. Now it’s blockchain, crypto stuff. SIEB is the latest one.

So with BTC, all of the hyperbole, emotion, predicting. But itself is just another market, it’s had a huge run, so cut back on things. Blockchain plus cryptocurrencies (the technology) themselves, are sort of like the internet itself in the 90s. And the stocks of today’s environment related to that idea.

And today BTC has had a big selloff, but it’s some of the other cryptos which have gotten clobbered, some down 50%. This morning, I took a 10% loss in an MGTI long from 4.95. The only othe rcrypto-type stock I have is OSTK. Even on the way down BTC has had 2 excellent 10%+ spring trade opportunities. Even that one overnight when I had already printed out the chart. There was another quick rally after that. As far as my investing approach in anything, except for very specific situations, I never invest unless something has fallen at least 50%. That is only step one. So BTC itself, that’s around 9500.