The following videos are from intraday today and following along on a few buys and sells. I apologize for the background noise, trying to fix it. HMNY was again an incredible trader, and not remotely a penny stock. I actually am not fond at all of penny stocks, preferring stocks well above $1, and often $10+ even better. I didn’t trade it today, but there is so much to learn from active stocks. Other stocks in our premarket which we believed would be active were CLSN (no trade for me), MTBC (no trade for me), IZEA still long from yesterday at 4.29, KALV no trade and didn’t do much, MNKD scratched at 5.56, CASI daytrade 3.41-3.82, NUGT long today at 33.20. All of these are discussed in the videos, and LINU, SRNE.
Also in a few recent videos I discussed sitting in a long in ITUS, and sat in that thing for a week and it didn’t move, and lost .10, 2.80-2.70 – liked the setup, but got impatient. Anybody who listened to me and had patience, congrats at least as of today’s close – you’re up 20%. Again, where else (which market) can you get winning trades like this on a consistent basis? And with legitimate companies and without throwing darts? My TLT long put position is discussed, especially in context of the lousy timing in my MNKD trade, why luck is better than smarts, and why if we’re going to be wrong, at least let’s be wrong at really good areas – not the absolute worst areas. CASI exit in the second video, along with MNKD discussion, and more.
Hello Scott
A)Referring to 4:31 “breaks hard” How do you define “break hard”? some examples? How do go about spoting a hard break in real time?
B)Just wondering why you went long on MNKD when the green volume was kind of low compared with the red?
A) Very good question. I’ll show it in video form, but..a lot of trading is just doing things over and over and over, and things become “gut-feel”, which i don’t actually believe in, it’s just experience in my view. And each stock or market is specific to each single situation, technically and in context. This stock has been incredibly strong, and twice on the run up, I believed we were seeing bearish supply coming in and I said that to Stevie, and I was wrong. So then I told her and you guys that this thing is “relentless”. I was trying to give it plenty of room. So the hard break is what – a SOW. Often times they are very “obvious”. You really want that volume to surge off of the high areas. It did not do that. Tricky stock. So today, Thursday, with a really nice snap-back spring rally in the AM, This one has been tricky most of the way. Now it’s likely range trading when the EA shows up at the low areas. So break hard is to see if you can recognize a EA, and then a surge in volume with ease of movement to the downside. It’s then probabilities. And keep in mind, easy to forget. but HMNY doubled in just a few days several times off of the reaction areas. I’ve learned a long time ago, when something is relentless, give it plenty of room. I made a good bit of money trading this stock in the last several week, instead of like a lot of what I read, everyone kept calling the top.
B) Couple things, I thought it was a spring setting up. The red bar down looked like a spike low, often times the big green shows up a few bars later. So I at times will try to “front-run”. So I did believe we had enough probabilities, and it could have a pretty good snap-back. I was wrong. It didn’t work this time. But again, what other “system” can you get scratches/small losses, even when it doesn’t work. Also, remember this concept – I totally believe in my “edge” in markets. And using probabilities, and the statistics, if you have an edge much greater than 50%, then just keep trading. Keep at it. The math works out wonderfully. I often tell Stevie this. Just keep trading, keep trading your edge, and let the math work wonders for you.
If you can talk more about “”what other “system” can you get scratches/small losses, even when it doesn’t work.” and how to decide when to sell, either immediately or when to wait for “scratches/small loss” in real time?
Insightful. I think you’re seeing now that so much of this is directly from the experiences of actual trading. The experience from all of the thoughts and emotions and psychology of being in there. Having a winning attitude and really enjoying the increasing knowledge from the trades. It starts clicking and coming together. I will talk about that stuff this weekend, with charts, hopefully it won’t be too abstract. There is no “textbook” for much of this. So again why the people selling trading systems is a total fraud.
It’s normal for short term interest rate be in uptrend and long term rate be in downtrend during economic boom
http://tsi-blog.com/2017/09/revisiting-the-us-yield-curve/
I like Steve and agree with that in general, but those examples are from a 35 year bond bull market. All results are skewed in the direction of the trend of a market.